While markets are currently staging a recovery attempt, some analysts feel negative sentiment will drive prices lower still.
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CNBC commentator and CEO of digital currency investment firm BKCM LLC, Brian Kelly, believes that, “Bitcoin is about 50 percent undervalued.” However, just because it is undervalued is not a good enough reason for it to move up. Kelly opines that due to extreme negative sentiment, he will not be surprised even if Bitcoin drops to $1,500.
While it is difficult to predict where the current bear market will bottom out, various experts believe that the next bull run will be a strong one. Zhu Fa, the co-founder of Poolin, a Chinese-based crypto mining pool, is extremely ambitious as he expects Bitcoin to reach $738,000 during the next bull phase. However, he also warns that the next bull run might be the last.
Though astronomical price targets look enticing, we are currently looking for fundamental developments to carry crypto prices out of the bear market. Japanese e-commerce firm Rakuten is likely to integrate crypto payments in its mobile app that will be released on March 18. If this happens, it will be a welcome step in bringing crypto closer to mass adoption.
There have been a few recovery attempts in the past few months but they have not sustained. Will the current recovery signal a bottom? Let’s look at the charts to find out.
Unlike previous occasions, the tight range in Bitcoin (BTC) has resolved to the upside. Currently, the price is attempting to break out of the downtrend line, which has been a stiff resistance since the end November 2018. A break out of this resistance will indicate strength and attract buyers.
Traders can wait for a close (UTC time frame) above the downtrend line and buy 30 percent of their desired allocation. The stop loss can be kept just below the lows at $3,200. The next level to watch on the upside is $4,255.
A breakout above $4,255 will complete a double bottom pattern, that has a target objective of $5,273.91. Traders can add the remaining 70 percent position on a breakout and close above $4,255.
Contrary to our expectation, if the bears defend the overhead resistance of $4,255, the BTC/USD pair will remain range bound for a few more days. Our bullish view will be invalidated if the pair turns down and plunges below $3,236.09.
Ethereum (ETH) broke out of the overhead resistance at $134.50 on Feb. 17 and has soared higher. Its next target is $167.32. Traders who have long positions can trail half of their stops closely so as to protect about 75 percent of paper gains. The remaining position can be held with the stop at the breakeven. We do not recommend booking complete profits because we anticipate a move to $167.32 and higher. Hence, we will give some wiggle room for half of the positions.
The 20-day EMA is gradually sloping higher and the RSI has reached the overbought zone. This shows that the bulls are in command. The pair is in the early stage of forming an ascending triangle pattern. Our bullish view will be negated if the ETH/USD pair turns down from the current levels and plunges back below $134.50.
Ripple (XRP) has broken out of the 20-day EMA and the 50-day SMA, which is a positive sign. It can now move up to $0.33108. The price has stayed below $0.33108 since Jan. 10 of this year. Hence, a break out of this level signifies bullishness. Traders can enter long positions on a breakout and close (UTC time frame) above $0.33108. The stop loss can be kept at $0.275. The target objective of this trade is $0.40 and higher.
Contrary to our assumption, if the XRP/USD pair turns down from the overhead resistance, it might remain range bound for a few days. The downtrend will resume on a breakdown of critical zone of $0.27795 and $0.24508. The flattening moving averages and the RSI close to 50 point to a consolidation in the near term.
EOS has broken out of the overhead resistance zone of $3.05–$3.2081. Its next target objective is $3.8723 and above it $4.4930. The gradual up-sloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the overbought zone shows that bulls have the upper hand. Traders who are long can protect half of their positions with a tight stop and trail the rest with a stop at $2.50.
We anticipate some resistance at $3.8723 but it is likely to be scaled. The target objective on the EOS/USD pair remains at $4.4930.
Our bullish assumption will be invalidated if the bears reverse direction sharply and push the price back below $3.2081.
After inching higher for the past three days, Litecoin (LTC) finally broke out of the overhead resistance at $47.2460. If the bulls sustain the breakout, the next target is $56.910. The uptrending moving averages and the RSI close to overbought territory shows that the path of least resistance is to the upside.
Nonetheless, if the bulls fail to sustain above $47.2460, the traders can book partial profits on their long positions and raise the stop loss on the rest to $40. A break below this level can result in a fall to $35 and lower. The LTC/USD pair will turn bearish if it breaks down from the critical support at $27.701.
After staying close to $121 for the past six days, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has started its journey northwards. It is currently facing some resistance at $141.
However, after breaking out of $141, we expect it to pick up momentum. Therefore, traders can buy on a close (UTC time frame) above $141 and keep the stop loss below the recent lows of $116. The first level to watch on the upside is $163, above which the up move can extend to $175. The BCH/USD pair might consolidate or correct closer to $175. However, the pair has a history of vertical rallies. If the bulls pierce through $175, it will open the door for a rally to $220.
All our bullish expectations will be negated if the pair turns down from $141. The trend will turn negative if the bears sink the virtual currency below $103.
The bulls are attempting to stabilize TRON (TRX) for the past five days but are facing resistance at the 50-day SMA. The moving averages are on the verge of a bearish crossover, which will indicate weakness. A breakdown of $0.02344160 can drag it to $0.02113440 and below it to $0.01830000.
On the other hand, if the TRX/USD pair scales above both the moving averages, it will face selling at the downtrend line and above it at $0.02815521. The pair will pick up momentum if it sustains above $0.02815521. The targets to watch on the upside are $0.0380 and above it $0.040. Traders who are long can keep their stops at $0.0230.
For the past three days, Stellar (XLM) had been attempting to break out of the 20-day EMA. Though unsuccessful, we liked the way it did not give up any ground. A breakout above the 20-day EMA can carry it to the downtrend line and above it to the 50-day SMA. But as the digital currency has not participated in the recent pullback, we will wait for it to form a bullish setup before suggesting a trade in it.
Contrary to our expectation, if the XLM/USD pair fails to scale above the overhead resistances, it will enter into a consolidation. The 20-day EMA has flattened out and RSI is also inching towards the midpoint. This points to a range formation in the short term.
The pair will turn negative if it plummets below the recent low of $0.07256747. Following a breakdown, the next support on the downside is at $0.05795397.
Binance Coin (BNB) has again risen close to the overhead resistance of $10. We anticipate strong selling in the $10–$12 zone. From mid-August to mid-November, it had struggled to break out of this range on two occasions.
Still, if the price sustains above $10, it will signal strength. A consolidation between $10 to $12 will be bullish for the BNB/USD pair because a breakout can push it to $15 and above it to $18.
Conversely, if the pair turns down from the current levels and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it can slide to the 50-day SMA, which is a critical support. We do not find any reliable buy setup with a good risk to reward ratio, hence, we are not suggesting any fresh long positions in it.
Bitcoin SV has broken out of the 20-day EMA. This had been a major roadblock since Jan. 3 and the price had repeatedly turned down from it.
The BSV/USD pair is currently facing resistance at $71.412 and the 50-day SMA. Traders can initiate a long position on a close (UTC time frame) above the 50-day SMA, with a target objective of $102.580.
The failure of the bears to capitalize on the weakness and sink the price below $57 shows demand at lower levels. Our bullish view will be invalidated if the pair turns down from current levels and breaks down of $57. If that happens, a drop to $38.528 is probable.
Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange. Charts for analysis are provided by TradingView.