According to data tracked by Bitfinex analysts, since the Bitcoin halving event on April 20, its one-month VRP (volatility risk premium) has fallen from 15% to 2.5%. VRP calculation is based on the gap between Volmex's Bitcoin 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) and 1-month realized volatility (VBRV).
Bitfinex analysts said in a report: "The sharp narrowing of VRP indicates that market expectations are readjusting to a more stable and predictable environment after the halving. The market consensus seems to be that future volatility after the halving may be lower than previously expected." In other words, the uncertainty of Bitcoin's market has weakened, and investors expect market conditions to be more predictable.
In addition, analysts also said: "One possible reason for the less decline in Ethereum VRP is that the US SEC is expected to make a decision on the spot ETF application on May 23, 2024, which brings additional uncertainty to Ethereum prices. This also confirms that VRP captures the premium associated with future uncertainty." (CoinDesk)