27 predictions for crypto in 2024

Author: Mippo, Blockworks; Translation: Golden Finance xiaozou

1. The battle for data availability will begin and become one of the biggest narratives in 2024.

2. Data availability (DA) solutions that stand out will win by brand rather than cost. There will be multiple DA solutions aligned with the ecosystem (such as EigenDA based on Ethereum, Celestia, etc.).

3. There will be L2 competition between 2-3 generation winners (such as Arbitrum and Optimism) and niche winners (such as Blast). Other L2 will not disappear, but will just serve as zombie chains It will exist for several years, maybe forever.

4. Blast’s leading position will prompt other L2 protocols and other similar protocols to generate native revenue.

5. At least one large lock (lock warehouse) and mint (minting) bridge will provide native income.

6. Ethereum will break away from the "Ultrasound Money" meme and form a new narrative.

7. Ethereum will do well in 2024 and reports of Ethereum’s demise are exaggerated. After the Bitcoin ETF comes out, ETH will rise because people should want to chase new and different narratives. Some L2s will perform exceptionally well. < /p>

8. In 2024, Ethereum’s pledge rate will exceed 50%.

9. 60% of liquidity stakers will choose to re-pledge (ultimately liquidity re-pledge). This will be driven by lower consensus and reduced execution rewards, essentially placing those seeking yield outside the scope of risk.

10. Restaking will be on other chains besides Ethereum Take off. One of the major liquidity staking providers outside of Ethereum will launch a vertically integrated re-staking service.

11. As parallelization and virtual machine optimization become the mainstream narrative in 2024, Aptos and Sui will once again occupy a certain market share.

12. Solana has essentially become the “Ethereum of this market cycle.” This is not a flash in the pan, and Solana’s outstanding performance will continue.

< p>13. Solana’s charging market and economics will receive increasing attention from investors and builders. By the end of 2024, the Solana community will put forward a proposal similar to 1559 to completely reform the charging mechanism.

14. At least two Ethereum OG DeFi protocols will launch on Solana, or launch their own SVM chains.

15. By the end of 2024, we will start hearing about Solana L2 Related news.

16. Citadel will vigorously promote the development of the encryption field and rank among the top three in the MEV field by the end of 2024. Ken Griffin will follow in the footsteps of Finn and publicly indicate his change in attitude towards cryptocurrency .

17. The time game will lead to major problems in the Ethereum consensus. This will further encourage MEV to shift from proposers to dapps and users.

18. Uniswap will usher in a breakthrough year. V4 will exceed market expectations and this wallet will become a dark horse. 2024 is the year they finally turn on the charging switch.

19. UniswapX will become a real bridge and begin to adjust its branding to promote itself.

20. NFT made a comeback and became the main rotation transaction after L1 started to run in earnest. PFPs are not dead, they will remain the primary use case.

21. L2 will begin major innovations in EVM. Parallelization will be a hot topic, but at some point the discussion will turn to interoperability. In 2024, L2 will still not be able to solve this problem.

22. We will walk through the debate between modularity and integration. The hybrid model will become a dominant narrative as solutions at different stages of the value chain are re-bundled through partnerships or vertical integration.

23. The cost problem still cannot be solved by any chain. 4844 will be disappointing, L2 and Ethereum will be costly. Solana fees will slowly rise and performance will be tested under the weight of bull traffic.

24. Tribalism will go through a worse situation before it gets better. The industry will be larger and more fragmented than it is today.

25. Friend Tech will return as the king in 2024. SocialFi will be at its peak.

26. Gaming will become an application that crosses the chasm into the mainstream, just like a game as simple and easy to play as Candy Crush.

27. Bitcoin will become a major political issue in the United States because of its performance in the face of attempts at financial repression. There will be all kinds of news broadcasts and your mom will ask you about Bitcoin again and again. And Bitcoin will ultimately be defended by the current strong and committed believers (such as the Fink team).