BIS Survey Predicts More CBDCs by 2030

The results of the 2022 Bank of International Settlements (BIS) survey on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) were released today, revealing insights into the progress and motivations behind the adoption of CBDCs. According to the survey, there could be an additional 15 retail and nine wholesale CBDCs launched by the end of the decade.

The study shows that the number of central banks actively exploring CBDCs has grown from 90% in 2021 to 93% in 2022. Notably, retail experiments have seen more progress compared to wholesale trials. The survey, which represents 94% of global economic output, suggests that emerging markets are leading the race in CBDC adoption, while advanced economies lag behind in both retail and wholesale CBDC pilots.

The survey delved into the current stage of development and motivations for CBDC issuance. It found that nearly 60% of central banks have accelerated their research in response to the rise of crypto-assets and stablecoins.

In terms of retail versus wholesale CBDCs, the study indicates that work on retail CBDCs is more advanced. The number of central banks piloting a retail option is double the number running a wholesale trial limited to banks. Approximately 18% of monetary authorities expect to issue a retail CBDC in the next three years, but 68% consider it unlikely in the near term.

The survey found that four out of five central banks agree that CBDCs should coexist with fast payment systems (FPS). CBDCs offer additional functionalities, such as programmable features and offline payments, which make their integration with FPS desirable.

The study also revealed differences between advanced economies and emerging markets. All currently live CBDCs have been issued by developing countries such as the Bahamas, Eastern Caribbean, Jamaica, and Nigeria. The share of emerging-market central banks piloting retail and wholesale CBDCs is significantly higher (29% and 16%, respectively) compared to their advanced economy counterparts (18% and 10%, respectively).