Blockware Report: Global Bitcoin Adoption to Reach 10% by 2030

Bitcoin could be adopted faster than past disruptive technologies like cars and electricity, and its global adoption rate could reach 10% by 2030, according to a new report.

In a June 8 report, Blockware Intelligence said it studied the historical adoption curves of nine past disruptive technologies, including automobiles, electricity, smartphones, the internet and social media, and the growth rate of Bitcoin adoption since 2009. , yielding this prediction.

"All disruptive technologies follow a similar exponential S-curve pattern, but ... new web-based technologies continue to be adopted at a much faster rate than the market expects."

Using the mean and weighted average of the historical technology adoption curve, and the growth rate of Bitcoin adoption, the report arrives at its forecast.

Based on the Cumulative Sum of Net Entities Growth metric and a projected Bitcoin "compound annual growth rate of 60 percent," the firm said they predict Bitcoin's global adoption will break through in 2030 10%.

Blockware Intelligence is the research arm of Blockware Solutions (a bitcoin mining and blockchain infrastructure company), so you might expect it to be optimistic about bitcoin adoption.

Given the immediate monetary incentives to adopt Bitcoin, the current macro environment, and the fact that the Internet will accelerate the growth of Bitcoin adoption, Bitcoin adoption is expected to reach saturation faster than many other disruptive technologies, the intelligence service said.

The report explains: "From a consumer perspective, past technologies had convenience/efficiency-related motivations for their adoption: using a car allows you to outrun horses and buggies, using a cell phone allows you to make phone calls without using a landline." Telephone."

“With Bitcoin as a direct economic incentive, adoption becomes a game theory where everyone’s best response is to adopt Bitcoin.”

Like the internet, smartphones, and social media, bitcoin benefits from more people adopting the technology, a so-called "network effect."

"For example, if you're the only user on Twitter, does it have any value? It doesn't. The more users there are, the more valuable these technologies are."

However, the authors of the Blockware report stress that the model used to predict adoption is conceptual at this stage, adding that it is neither intended for investment advice nor as a short-term trading tool, It will continue to be refined. However:

“The general trend is clear; it is very likely that Bitcoin’s global adoption will grow significantly in the future, and its price will increase with it.”

The report and model were reviewed by multiple cryptocurrency investors and analysts, including executives from Ark Invest, Arcane Assets, AMDAX Asset Management and M31 Capital.

The adoption of cryptocurrencies has been growing rapidly over the past few years. According to data from the global cryptocurrency payment gateway TripleA, in 2021, the global cryptocurrency holding rate will reach an average of 3.9%, and the global cryptocurrency users will exceed 300 million.

Blockchain data platform Chainanalysis revealed last year that global adoption of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies surged 881% from July 2020 to June 2021. The platform found that Vietnam has the highest cryptocurrency adoption rate, ahead of the 154 countries it analyzed, followed by India and Pakistan.

In April, a survey by cryptocurrency exchange Gemini found that adoption of cryptocurrencies in India, Brazil and other countries will soar in 2021, as more than half of the respondents from 20 countries said they would be in 2021. Start investing in cryptocurrencies.