Meta’s Threads, the ambitious contender to X, made a grand entrance with a staggering 100 million sign-ups.

However, the fervour soon waned as daily users dwindled by 82%, settling at a modest 8 million. User engagement was lacklustre, with just 2.6 minutes spent on the platform, and crucial features were absent. The once-promising vision of toppling X faded away.

Threads, which held much potential initially, grappled with user retention, and its future is now in doubt.

Facebook’s Competition with Other Social Networks

Let’s rewind back to the days when Facebook started. During that time, numerous well-known social media networks were already available in the market.

I recollect Friendster being the craze in Singapore. Everyone around had an account and asking for “testimonials” was a trend.

As Facebook began to gain popularity in Singapore in 2007, the fear of missing out drove everyone to join this new social network. The competition could be tough but Facebook was different. It succeeded in convincing everyone to make the transition and remain. It incorporated many different media aspects, from photos to messages to text, along with new tools and technologies. The array of features contributed to its steady expansion and overtaking of MySpace in 2008, making it the most-visited social media website.

Given Facebook's strong competition, various social media networks, such as Friendster, MySpace, Bebo, Google Buzz/Google+, Ping, and Vine, experienced significant challenges and eventual failures due to a range of factors –

Friendster: The social media pioneer’s downfall was attributed to weaker user connections compared to Facebook.

MySpace: The decline was resulted from becoming more marketer-focused rather than user-driven, coupled with Facebook's rise and more user-friendly interface.

Bebo: The social network that stands for “blog early, blog often,” struggled to adapt to the changing content landscape.

Google Buzz and Google+: Both that were launched by Google failed to gain traction and were eventually discontinued.

Ping: Apple's music-focused network couldn't differentiate itself and lost to Facebook.

Vine: A platform for sharing short video clips faced stiff competition, a lack of innovation, and issues with content creator support, leading to its demise.

Have you ever wondered how celebrities communicated with their fans before Facebook? During the peak of Cpop, Taiwan’s Yahoo Groups, also known as 奇摩家族 (Qímó jiāzú), were very popular. Anyone could create a fan club and invite their idols to join, and celebrities and influencers used the platform to socialise with their fans. However, when Facebook became popular globally, celebrities and public figures built their own pages, which gave them more control over how they interacted with fans.

In addition, Facebook introduced games that allowed friends to interact with each other on the platform. Pets Society and Restaurant City were two of the most popular games at the time.

These cases highlight the importance of strong user connections, innovation, differentiation, and adaptability for social media networks to thrive. Facebook had a lot of cool features all in one platform. Till date, those that survived well are vastly different from Facebook, such as Youtube, Twitter (now X) and Instagram. Interestingly, Facebook bought Instagram for $1 billion in 2012 as it was becoming a threat to Facebook.

Downfalls of Social Media OGs’ Dupes and The Common Problem

With the rise of popularity in social media users, it is not surprising that many attempted to defeat the original trendsetter with the hope to surpass them. Unfortunately, they didn’t survive well.

Some examples –

Wozai.cc: Wozai.cc was a social media website launched by a Taiwanese company in 2009 that replicated Twitter. It was built with the intention to bring closeness between people by sharing what they are doing and where they are. However, it looked and worked just like Twitter.

Snapeee: A Japanese iPhone app that merged elements of Instagram and the Japanese photo booth trend called Purikura, allowed users to take photos and add cute icons and text. Although it gained popularity among young girls, its niche audience size ultimately hindered its long-term viability.

Oasis: Sina Weibo launched Oasis, known as 绿洲 (Lǜzhōu) in Chinese, in 2019. It was seen as an opportunity to be China’s Instagram. At that point of time, Instagram was banned in China, which it currently still is, and its competitor, Xiaohongshu, a popular Chinese social media and e-commerce platform, was still not available to download. Today, the engagement on the platform is dry like desert, with minimal user activity.

So what’s the problem?

From my observations, they all lack unique selling to gain retention. The features are too similar to the originals where users have found purpose and communities on, so why would users give up and move to another platform? This goes the same as Threads.

However, it’s not always a failure.

Achieving Success by Repositioning Itself

17LIVE is a good example for a case study – what started out that looks like an Instagram is now a successful live streaming app. According to Wikipedia, it is now the third most popular live broadcasting platform in the world.

Started out as “17” App, the business was founded in Taiwan in 2015 by Jeffery Huang, a high-profile BAYC collector and better known as @machibigbrother on the X. The interface looked almost identical to Instagram, even the filters, but it was a simpler version. Back then when I tried using it, I felt like I was using Instagram but on another app. And that's not all. The addition of a live streaming feature helped the app to differentiate itself from the competition. Today, they have achieved success by pivoting to become a live streaming app.

The filter and photo editing interface was very similar to Instagram's. (Source: Qooah.com)

Source: Qooah.com

Conclusion

Threads is currently far behind its competitors if Meta wants it to become one of the leading social media platforms. I disagree with the idea of Threads competing with X, as X has already established a strong community over the years. It will be a difficult and uphill battle for Threads, and it will likely fail unless it offers something significantly better than X. Minor features like editing and voice notes are not enough to convince users to switch to Threads.

Referencing 17LIVE's success, it demonstrates that there is potential for Threads to thrive as a successful social media platform. However, Threads will need to introduce a unique and compelling feature that can attract and retain a large user base. One potential avenue is the integration of AI capabilities into the app, encompassing AI-generated visuals and text, along with AI functionalities designed to facilitate online events and prize distributions. Given Meta's prior exploration of AI, this direction would align seamlessly with the company's trajectory.