Why do I never trade cryptocurrencies?

Author: shivsak

Source: shivsak's twitter

There are countless participants in the encryption field, but not everyone likes to participate in cryptocurrency transactions, such as shivsak, the author of this article. Shivsak often shares his research in the field of encryption with pictures and texts on Twitter, as well as his views on the field of encryption. In this article, he will explain why he has never traded cryptocurrencies, hoping to inspire everyone.

1. I have a long-term view of the market

For a long time (5+ years), I am bullish on cryptocurrencies. Therefore, a buy-and-hold strategy is more in line with my thesis.

It is clear to me that many use cases today are nowhere near even realizing the potential of this technology. I think really valuable use cases are 3-5 years away.

2. I am skeptical about technical analysis

It may work, it may not, but I don't want to invest based on the dotted line I draw.

I certainly wouldn't put my money on this just because of some group chat callout. While I may occasionally (over a few months) trade based on what I see, I do not do any chart-based short-term trading.

3. I have no reason to believe that I will be successful

Did you know? 80% of drivers consider themselves above average.

This is called illusory superiority.

I feel like a lot of traders share the same bias, thinking they have above average trading skills.

However, the truth is that more than 80% of traders lose money.

But every trader I saw claimed to have made money.

Is this survivor bias, or are they just saying it because no one can verify it? I have no way of knowing.

I am sure that some people can make money trading, but I have no reason to believe that I could have done it without years of practice and constant mistakes.

If you can't verify who is a successful trader, who else can you learn from?

4. I want to focus on what I am good at

There are many ways to make money investing in cryptocurrencies. I'd rather focus on what I'm good at (fundamentals, DeFi, construction) than dilute my efforts.

5. I have no way of determining what is "good technical analysis" and what is "bad technical analysis".

I've seen too many videos doing all kinds of predictions. There are hundreds of indicators and infinite ways to draw lines. Technical analysis can show you anything you want.

And I can't tell the good from the bad.

6. It's time consuming

Especially if you are trading for a short period of time. I don't like watching the market all the time to make a living.

7. It takes energy

I used to play poker a lot.

I dabbled enough in trading to see the similarities between the two.

The discrepancy, lack of control and disconnect between your actions and outcomes means you are on a constant roller coaster of highs and lows.

8. I am not interested in it.

Trading is a zero sum game. Even if you can make a profit, I don't like the idea of wasting time without creating value.

I have similar feelings about poker. I love the game, but it doesn't feel good to spend so much time without any net positive value add.

I'm more interested in exploring the projects being built and the innovation behind them.

These are just my personal thoughts, not meant to offend anyone who trades for a living.

Of course, if you can make a profit on the trade and enjoy the process, that's great.