If BTC reaches 1 million US dollars

Author: Liu Jiaolian

Among the currently active BTC market leaders, Ark Fund ( Cathie Wood from Ark Invest has given the boldest target: BTC USD 1380,000 in 2030. (Refer to the 2023.10.15 article "Ark Fund predicts that BTC may reach a maximum of 1480,000 U.S. dollars in 2030") knife.

Sister Mu’s argument is biased towards fundamentals. Possible reachable markets are listed and the size and penetration rate are estimated one by one. Then add all the items together to get a relatively scientific estimate. This method is more in line with the scientific aesthetics. The thinking paradigm tends to be from the outside in, focusing more on external causes.

The opposite method is purely technical analysis. Look for patterns in historical prices and believe that this pattern will be repeated in the future. A typical example is the double-logarithmic price corridor model that Jiaolian has introduced many times. According to this model, the time for BTC to neutrally reach 1 million knives is October 2032, and the time to robustly reach 1 million knives is April 2037. This kind of approach is more from the inside out, focusing more on internal causes. (Refer to Jiaolian's 2021.7.24 article "Bitcoin's Price Corridor", Jiaolian's internal reference 2023.12.24 "Annual Private Board Meeting Summary")

In fact, it is still There are different methods than the above two to estimate the possibility of BTC reaching a certain height. This method is: the weighing of human hearts.

This method does not require you to conduct research to understand how other people weigh BTC. All you need to do is ask yourself and ask yourself, if BTC reaches 1 million dollars, will all kinds of people or institutions be able to match it?

We have a philosophy, virtue must be coordinated.

Suppose you currently hold X BTC. Then you might as well imagine in your mind, if BTC reaches 1 million U.S. dollars, whether your current various aspects are worthy of holding X million U.S. dollars of wealth.

If it is difficult, there are only three possibilities to move forward:

1. BTC Less than 1 million dollars.

2. BTC has reached 1 million dollars, but the number of BTC in your hand has decreased, from X to (X - y), thus making (X - y) x 1 million dollars is a wealth you can afford.

3. You continue to practice and grow rapidly with BTC. By the time BTC reaches 1 million knives, you will have grown to be worthy of wealth worth X million knives. .

We can also pull out some typical cookie hoarders and weigh them.

Note: The data in the picture is not the latest

For example, it claims to never sell cakes Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy. Under his leadership, MicroStrategy currently accumulates approximately 189,000 BTC, with a current total value of approximately 43k x 18.9w ~= 8.1 billion knives. (Refer to the 2023.12.28 article "Having accumulated 189,150 BTC, will the micro-strategy strategy cause thunder?")

If BTC grows to 1 million dollars, Then the total value of this position will rise to a staggering $189 billion. It is roughly equivalent to the current market value of China Mobile or Alibaba, ranking above 70th in the global asset rankings.

It's actually not too surprising. The market capitalization of Apple, the No. 1 company in the U.S. stock market, is $13.795 trillion.

Even if BTC grows to the 10 million knives envisioned by Hal Finney in his early years, the value of micro-strategy positions will only be 1.89 trillion knives, which is only equivalent to Apple’s One tenth stronger. But it’s enough to break into the top five, surpassing Google.

Interestingly, MicroStrategy’s U.S. stock premium is almost very small, and the company’s total market value is basically equivalent to the total value of the BTC it holds. At present, the total market value of micro-strategy US stocks is only $8.63 billion, which is only $500 million more than the value of BTC holdings of $8.1 billion.

So, let alone $1 million in BTC, even $10 million in BTC doesn’t seem too outrageous.

Another case is the Winklevoss brothers. These two guys were the ones who won a lawsuit against Zuckerberg of Facebook and won a compensation of 65 million US dollars. What was awesome about them was that after receiving the compensation, they discovered that BTC was only about 100 US dollars at the time, so they decisively bought it in large quantities. , spent 11 million knives before and after, and it is believed that he bought about 1%, which is about 210,000 BTC (it is not a clear name, and the specific number of positions cannot be accurately known).

This scale is about the same as the position size of the micro-strategy. You can refer to the above test to weigh whether these two brothers are worthy of this incredible wealth.

Finally, let’s measure it based on the holdings of Satoshi Nakamoto, a brother who has long since retired from the world. According to later analysis based on the on-chain mining model, it is speculated that approximately 1.1 million BTC were mined by Satoshi Nakamoto. He left it there, unmoving, standing as a spiritual monument. (Refer to Liu Jiaolian's 2022.9.30 article "The Legendary Treasure of Satoshi Nakamoto")

These 1.1 million BTC, based on the current price of about 44k, is about the same At $48.4 billion.

According to Wikipedia, the world's richest man is the Bernard Arnault family who sells LV bags, with approximately US$211 billion. Followed closely by Tesla boss Elon Musk, with $180 billion. No. 10 is Microsoft co-founder Steve Ballmer, with $80 billion.

Satoshi Nakamoto’s legendary treasure is only a little more than half of Ballmer’s.

If BTC is worth 1 million U.S. dollars, then the wealth left by Satoshi Nakamoto will be worth 1.1 trillion U.S. dollars. If this wealth belonged to Satoshi Nakamoto personally, it would make him the richest person on earth, and his net worth would be five times that of the richest man in the world today.

If BTC is worth $10 million, then this wealth will be worth $11 trillion, comparable to the market value of Apple, the most successful technology company on the planet today. .

So why did Satoshi Nakamoto understand from the beginning that he must retire and must retire? Because today's world does not allow any individual to shoulder such a huge burden of wealth independently.

There is only an anthropomorphic pseudonym and code name with no history, no past, and no future, a legend that remains in people's hearts, and one that has no real existence. Only a "god" that cannot be defeated can be fearless of the wealth and wealth of a country that is invincible.

Everyone is Satoshi Nakamoto.

Today we have reached the point where the "Ten Years Promise" is confirmed and witnessed. This is the 15th record and the 10th time the position has been added. Place market orders to add positions without any pressure. The purchase price is 43908.4 knives.

After adding positions, the accumulated positions are about 5 million satoshis. The holding cost is 30,419 knives. Floating profit is 44%.

Walking up is always easy. The further we go, the brighter the sky becomes, and everyone will have confidence.