Solana and DePIN dual narrative Is Helium Mobile the new Ponzi?

Author: KillerWhalesDAO Killer Whale Club

Helium Mobile's "Double Flywheel Currency Price Spiral Rise Model" + "The 33 Pivot Points That Detonate the Flywheel" make people full of expectations for its performance in the bull market. However, due to policy and technical risks, it may ultimately prove to be just another epic Ponzi.

With the recovery of #Solana ecology, and the popularity of #Depin track. As the leader, $Mobile's price surged 10 times in the short term at the end of 2023, reaching a maximum of $0.008.

With the recent correction of #Solana ecological series tokens, at the time of writing, #Mobile is currently priced at $0.0027, with the maximum correction being as high as 68% .

With the decline in currency prices, doubts about blockchain scams have also begun to increase. So, what are the fundamentals of the Helium Mobile project?

However, there is still too little information on systematic research and interpretation of #Mobile in the Chinese-speaking area. We, Killer Whales DAO, will plan to system and interpret it in the future. Analyze and interpret this project in depth and track on-chain data in real time.

If you are interested in #Mobile and #Solana ecosystem, #DePin, #AI+, please follow us @KillerWhalesDAO.

Let’s talk about the conclusion first. We believe thatThe most outstanding thing about Helium Mobile is that it is a “double flywheel currency price increase model” that simultaneously matches "The 33 fulcrums that detonate the flywheel". The risks mainly lie in the policy risks of 5G network construction, geographical restrictions in the United States, and possible signal instability among telecom virtual operators.

At the same time, Mobile’s token chips are too concentrated and are not on mainstream CEX, so prices fluctuate greatly.

In addition, the project owner Helium’s last IoT project #hnt was not successful. Many miners suffered heavy losses and also suffered a series of delistings from Binance. question. This also somewhat affects people's confidence in Helium to start a new plate.

1. What is Helium Mobile?

Helium Mobile is a decentralized 5G operator that uses token #Mobile to incentivize network operators to deploy and operate 5G mobile network hardware, thereby forming decentralization Wireless Network (DeWi).

$MOBILE is the Helium subDAO governance token, aiming to achieve separation of governance.

We all know that the biggest cost of 5G network construction is the construction of base stations. Helium Mobile cleverly uses the economic incentives of tokens to encourage individuals to purchase router-like hotspot facilities and deploy them in various indoor and outdoor environments.

To put it simply, it is to mobilize the power of the masses to replace large base stations with countless scattered small hotspots. This results in lower construction costs, more complete and wider network coverage, and cheaper telecom package rates.

2. Double flywheel currency price spiral upward model

First of all, Helium Mobile is a POW mine Coin, like #btc and #fil, the traditional POW mining currency has a mining currency flywheel effect of "mining machine - currency price" (see Figure 1).

The money from selling mining machines can be used To do market value management. Drive the price down.

Then, as prices rise, mining benefits increase, which will attract more people to deploy mining machines.

As a result, the mining machines sold further, and with more market-making funds, they continued to pull the market.

At the same time, after the mining coin flywheel starts turning, the mining machines will sell out and the currency price will rise sharply, which will attract more retail investors in the secondary market to buy pallet coins. price.

After the flywheel rotates, you can step on the left foot and the right foot like this to spiral upward.

In the past, mining coins, whether #btc, #fil and #hnt, were all raised in this way.

In 2021, #fil increased 10 times in a quarter, and #hnt increased 100 times in a year.

But with only a mining currency flywheel, it can be just an idling bubble. For example, #fil did decentralized storage, but only the mining machines were idling there, and there were no real users at all. And #hnt has a large number of invalid hotspots deployed in China, which cannot be used.

Although #BTC has also started the mining currency flywheel, the reason why it is not at the same level as #fil and #hnt is that it has real usage scenarios : Payment and value storage. There are really a large number of people/institutions who use it for settlement and store it as digital gold.

The difference between Helium Mobile and the traditional #fil and #hnt is that it not only has a layer of mining currency flywheel, it also has a layer of "mining machine/ Hotspot—User" flywheel (see Figure 2).

The more hot spots are laid out, the better the user experience will be The better, the more users.

At the same time, the more users there are, the greater the demand for mining machines/hotspots.

Virtuous cycle.

It is the "double flywheel currency price spiral upward model".

On the "Mining Machine/Hotspot - User" flywheel, in order to avoid the problem of idling of #fil and #hnt mining machines.

Helium Mobile creatively proposes a solution based on usage The principle of determining mining rewards based on quantity. Only real users who connect to the hotspot Hostpot and generate data transfer can get Mobile rewards.

If you just buy a large number of hotspots and idle them there, there will be no reward.

At the same time, in order to guide the layout of mining machines more scientifically and rationally. Helium Mobile also cleverly encourages mobile phone plan subscribers to share their mobile phone location information (Mapping) in order to receive mobile rewards.

In this way, the location distribution of users and mining machines is clear at a glance (see Figure 4).

Project parties can use different tokens The reward coefficient guides the layout of mining machines.

If hotspots are more popular than places with more people, less rewards will be given.

In hotspots with fewer people, the reward coefficient should be adjusted higher.

In this way, it not only completely solves the problem of idling of mining machines, but also guides the layout of hot spots scientifically and rhythmically. It has to be said that Helium has accumulated a lot of experience based on its experience in trading hnt.

3. The 33 fulcrum that detonates the flywheel

Helium Mobile is a double flywheel with currency prices spiraling upward model, and in order for the flywheel to rotate, there must be a fulcrum to lever it.

For the "mining machine/hotspot-user" flywheel, it has three fulcrums to leverage the user end: price slaughter, seamless connection, and token incentives.

As for the "mining machine - currency price" flywheel, it also has three fulcrums to leverage the currency price: the double buff of Solana and Depin, token deflation, The ultimate MEME.

These six pivots are collectively called detonation 33 pivot points of the flywheel.

(1) Price massacre

According to statistics from JDPower , U.S. users will spend an average of $157 per month on telecom packages in 2023.

With Helium Mobile’s plan, you can enjoy unlimited calls, unlimited data, and unlimited text messages for only $20.

It is quite similar to the crazy attitude of Didi and Kuaiche when they burned money to subsidize users.

(2) Seamless Connection

What many of us in Asia don’t know is that the iPhone in North America comes standard with a physical SIM card slot and an eSIM.

When changing telecommunications tariff packages, there is no need to go to a business hall to change cards like in mainland China. Moreover, number portability has encountered many obstacles.

You only need to download the Helium Mobile APP and set up the eSIM on your phone to seamlessly switch to the Helium Mobile plan.

Another important issue that affects user switching Yes: What should I do if the early network hotspot coverage is low?

Your $20 package is cheap and attractive. But what should I do if the coverage of early hotspots is small, the signal is poor, and the user experience is poor?

Helium Mobile has already planned this. It has signed a five-year strategic cooperation with T-Mobile, one of the four major traditional mobile network operator giants in the United States.

Helium's own 5G network is combined with T-Mobile's network to provide Helium Mobile users with the ability to operate in areas without decentralized wireless network (DeWi) coverage. , the encryption carrier will automatically switch to T-Mobile's network.

This fundamentally guarantees that if users want to switch to Helium Mobile's tariff package, it will be seamless. That is, there are no inconveniences in use or cumbersome replacement procedures.

(3) Token incentives

We mentioned earlier In order to plan the layout of mining machines more scientifically, Helium Mobile encourages mobile phone plan subscribers to share their mobile phone location information every day.

For this reason, the corresponding incentive measures will be to reward Mobile tokens.

At the end of 2023, when the price of Mobile reached its peak, people even exclaimed, “Recover your money in 2 days, make a net profit in 28 days”!

You subscribe to a package for $20/month, and you only need to click on your phone every day, share your location, and then do whatever you need to do. Helium rewards you with $10 worth of Mobile Tokens every day.

After 2 days of use, this package is equivalent to a free gift.

Not only that, you can also continue to use the obtained Mobile tokens to prepay for up to 3 months of package fees.

This is still very lethal to the old Americans living in dire straits.

Of course, if you are not satisfied with using Mobile earns $10 in Mobile tokens every day, and wants to get more token rewards. Then you need to buy a specialized mining machine/hotspot Hostpot. The current outdoor version is US$499/unit. The supply exceeds the demand, and it is out of stock as soon as it comes out. The indoor version is still in stock, priced at $249 per unit.

These are the three fulcrums of Helium Mobile that leverage the user side of the "mining machine/hotspot-user" flywheel: price slaughter, seamless connection, and token incentives .

Driven by these three pivots, Helium Mobile has more than 50,000 package subscribers. And this data is still growing at a rate of hundreds to thousands every day.

From a data point of view, it has only been just over a month since the launch of the $20/month package, and it coincides with the Western Christmas holiday. The cold start momentum is good.

Next, we will explain the three fulcrums on the currency price side that move the "mining machine/hot spot - currency price" flywheel.

(4) The dual buffs of Solana’s ecology and Depin’s narrative

In 2023, we witnessed Solana's rebirth from the ashes and regained its glory. The ecology of this public chain dominated by Wall Street elites is on the eve of a full-scale explosion. The SOL/ETH exchange rate also rebounded 5 times from the bottom.

Helium is the leading DePIN project in Solana ecosystem , and it is also one of Solana’s core strategic focuses in 2024.

CoinEx’s previous analysis pointed out that the Solana ecosystem’s focus is mainly on DeFi, Memecoin and DePIN.

Solana’s main narrative is DePIN. This is determined by the founder’s background, ideas and layout, and does not happen to happen.

Solana founder toly’s longest working experience was in development at Qualcomm for more than ten years, including when Solana first raised funds in 2018, the founder said I also want to do communications and hardware.

At Solana's Breakpoint conference at the end of October 2023, the case of Helium Mobile was put at the forefront and mentioned repeatedly. In addition, every project mentioned in the conference, such as the silly costumes worn by the founders, had wonderful performances in November, either skyrocketing or announcing airdrops.

It is basically an official order call s project.

Even setting aside Solana's favoritism, Depin is one of the master narratives of this bull market.

OKX Chinese @okxchinese’s Depin science popularization "Why is Depin considered one of the most promising tracks in 2024?" 》

In this episode, Helium Mobile is directly used as an example to explain.

And @binancezh also made "How to See the new narrative of Solana Ecology & Depin? 》's special Space, but the whole discussion is also about Helium Mobile.

There is no doubt that Depin is the currency of this cycle. One of the master narratives of the bull market. And Helium Mobile firmly occupies the leading position.

According to CoinGecko data, Helium currently ranks third in the entire DePIN track in terms of market capitalization. Three of the top five projects are Solana-based (Render, Helium and Helium Mobile).

(5) Token deflation

For those who are familiar with Gamefi For veteran players of mining coins, token inflation and selling pressure have always been a persistent problem.

Therefore, many people will habitually ask about Mobile, if more and more users and mining machines come in, how to solve inflation? Are there any token consumption scenarios?

This is actually a lack of understanding of Mobile’s token economic model.

Mobile is the same as BTC, the total amount is constant, 250B, and there is no inflation.

Then the annual output is set in advance and has nothing to do with the number of mining machines. And it is halved every 2 years.

There is 50B pre-mining before mining, and then 66B will be added in the first year, 33B will be added in the second and third years respectively, and in the fourth and third years An additional 16.5B will be added in each of the five years, and so on.

In this case, just like BTC basically produces a block every 10 minutes, the output rate is very stable. Whether you were mining with a laptop 10 years ago or using a professional mining machine now. It doesn’t matter how many people are mining. Its output is fixed and constant every year.

The more mining machines there are, the less output a single mining machine can produce. The incentives for miners mainly come from the increase in currency prices.

Similar to BTC, there is no need to set any consumption scenarios specifically for Mobile. Whether the flywheel can spiral only depends on whether this story can gather market consensus.

Furthermore, Mobile not only has a constant total amount, it is also a deflationary model. Because hotspot manufacturers and operators have requirements for pledging Mobile (to become Hostpot Vendors, you need to pledge 500 million Mobile, and to become Hostpot Operators, you need to pledge 50 million Mobile).

(6) Ultimate MEME

Helium Mobile has it All the elements needed for an ultimate MEME:

The first one is the cheapest mobile plan in North America at $20/month, which is very contagious in itself.

At the same time, even a grandma can understand this - American Telecom, the package is cheap, the mobile phone can also mine, if you want to make more, you can also install hotspots . The imagination is huge.

Finally, the threshold for user participation is 0, and 5G itself is an absolute necessity and has strong ability to break the circle.

ICO can set off a wave because everyone can issue assets.

Defi Summer further enriches the assets that can be issued.

Gamefi is popular because the threshold for publishing and obtaining assets has been further reduced to the point where you only need to play games, and you do not need to understand professional blockchain technology or possess anything. resource.

The reason why stepn has become a phenomenal Gamefi project is because the threshold has been further lowered to the point where you can participate if you have legs and can walk.

Helium Mobile has pushed this game to an unprecedented extreme:

Participation threshold It is 0, there is no technical threshold. It doesn’t take any time, mobile mining only requires sharing your location. Hotspot Hostpot mining only requires plugging in a network cable.

Moreover, the 5G network itself is an absolute necessity for everyone.

4. Possible risks

Although Helium Mobile is quite sophisticated in the design of the entire project , the project party’s resource integration and operation capabilities are also relatively strong. But in the early stages of the project, there are still many risks.

First of all, the biggest risk still comes from policy risks. 5G network construction is a strategic infrastructure in any country. Especially in the United States, there are complicated regulations involving multiple departments. Although Helium Mobile has grasped T-Mobile's thighs in a timely manner, it may not be a big problem in the early stages of the project, but as the scale grows, this may be a potential minefield.

At the same time, it is also because of the strategic position of 5G construction. No country will easily let a foreign company carry out 5G construction. Therefore, Helium Mobile will be limited to the United States for a long time.

In addition, Helium Mobile and T-mobile have signed a virtual operator agreement. Virtual operators have emerged in China for a few years, but have disappeared due to various problems such as unstable signals and inadequate services. These problems encountered in the past may still be obstacles for Helium Mobile to focus on customer service in the future.

Finally, the last IoT project #hnt by Helium, the project owner, was not successful. Many miners suffered heavy losses, and they also suffered a series of delistings from Binance, etc. question. This also somewhat affects people's confidence in Helium to start a new plate.

At the same time, Mobile's FDV has reached 0.7B, but the token chips are too concentrated and are not on mainstream CEX, resulting in poor liquidity.

High market value, highly concentrated chip structure, weak liquidity, and an old banker with a long history of criminal records. All indicate that Mobile's price will fluctuate significantly for a long period of time. Investors must control their positions and timing of entry.

Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, please make your own judgment. Investment is risky, so be cautious when investing.

Conclusion

In summary, Helium Mobile’s own project quality is good, and its “Double Flywheel Coin” "Price spiral upward model" + "33 pivot points that set off the flywheel" make people full of expectations for its performance in the bull market. However, due to policy and technical risks, it may ultimately prove to be just another epic Ponzi.