Where will the BTC price be when the fifth halving occurs in 2028?

Author: Tom Mitchelhill, CoinTelegraph; Compiled by: Deng Tong, Golden Finance

The fourth Bitcoin halving officially indicates that the reward paid to miners has been reduced from 6.25 Bitcoins to 3.125 Bitcoins per block. currency. But now, experts are turning their attention to where Bitcoin will go when the next halving occurs in 2028.

While miners are technically less compensated for their efforts to secure the network, many analysts generally agree that The halving event is a harbinger of a significant increase in Bitcoin prices - miners experience significantly fewer "supply shocks" to new Bitcoins hitting the market.

In an interview, Pav Hundal, chief analyst of Swyftx, based on the price trend prediction that occurred after the previous halving, By the 2028 halving, the price will increase by at least 100%, which will bring the Bitcoin price to around $120,000.

He said: "Our prices increased by more than 60,000% from trough to peak in 2013, to 12,000% in 2017, and then to 2,000% in 2021."

“Our core scenario is that this trend will continue and see high double- or triple-digit price gains at the next halving.”

He added that investors would be “difficult” to imagine that Bitcoin’s value would not exceed its current price of $60,000 at the next halving.

Henrik Andersson, chief investment officer of Australian cryptocurrency investment company Apollo Crypto, said that his mood is slightly optimistic and he expects < strong>The peak price of Bitcoin will reach around US$200,000 before 2028.

Andersson said that from an institutional perspective, Wider acceptance of Bitcoin will boost Bitcoin’s price action.

Additionally, he said his fund expects about $65 billion in net inflows into ETFs during the current cycle.

Caroline Bowler, CEO of BTC Markets, noted that she is monitoring external forecasts from investment banking firms such as Standard Chartered Bank, which said, By the end of 2025, the price of Bitcoin could be as high as $200,000.

“In the short time that we have seen ETF participation, there has been continued support for this argument,” she said.

Kraken Australia managing director Jonathon Miller noted that while discussions during the halving will naturally translate into price predictions, he sees the event as "a reminder of the gains being made in global adoption progress".

Miller said: “My hope is that by the next Bitcoin halving, cryptocurrency adoption will accelerate and even the most die-hard technology laggards will learn about the halving process for the first time. ”

The halving may put miners in trouble

However, the recent Bitcoin halving and There are still some concerns about the next Bitcoin halving in 2028 - The main concern is that miner rewards may be reduced to the point where Bitcoin mining Mine is unprofitable in the long run.

On January 26, Cantor Fitzgerald released a report outliningIf most publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies want to stay in business in the long term, the price of Bitcoin needs to stabilize above $40,000.

If BTC falls below $40,000, Bitcoin miners may be in trouble. Source: Cantor Fitzgerald

At current prices, this is not a problem for most miners. However, if Bitcoin falls below $40,000, it could raise concerns about gains.

Andreessen hopes to add other revenue streams for mining companies beyond purely Bitcoin-denominated mining rewards.

He pointed out that the popularity of Ordinals and other fee-based applications (such as the upcoming Runes protocol and Layer 2 networks such as Stacks) have brought increased revenue to miners.

Similarly, Bowler seemed unconcerned that mining might become "too expensive," saying current concerns about mining and energy efficiency should be viewed as "exaggerated."