Dan Morehead, founder of Pantera, said in a recent interview that Bitcoin's four-year cycle pattern will continue, and the market will experience a big bull market and then a bear market. But the only difference is that after three 85% declines in the past 12 years, the next correction may only be 50% or 60%, at least for Bitcoin, and small currencies may still have greater fluctuations. If the four-year cycle rule is followed, April 19 this year is the halving time, and August 2025 is expected to be the peak of this cycle. It has been predicted that the volatility will gradually decrease. The previous halving cycle was more volatile, and this time it will be relatively mild. It's not just the halving factor, the political and macroeconomic environment are also creating favorable conditions for cryptocurrencies. So I'm quite optimistic about 2025.

Recommended readings tonight: 1. Spore.fun: AI version of "Love, Death and Robots"; 2. Kaiko Research: Defining the crypto space in 2024 with 10 charts; 3. De-banking: Personal insights;

Sky (formerly MakerDAO) disclosed data on the X platform that the supply of USDS on the Solana chain has exceeded 100 million. Earlier news, MakerDAO announced a brand rebranding, the Maker protocol will be renamed Sky, and its decentralized stablecoin DAI will be renamed "USDS".

According to Coinglass data, if Bitcoin breaks through $97,000, the cumulative short order liquidation strength of mainstream CEX will reach 483 million. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below $95,000, the cumulative long order liquidation strength of mainstream CEX will reach 272 million.

Bitcoin (BTC) has shown signs of resilience, with derivatives and margin data suggesting bullish sentiment despite recent price volatility. After rebounding 6.5% from a Dec. 23 low of $92,458, BTC is gearing up to retest its $98,000 resistance and potentially rally to $105,000.Key Highlights:Strong Derivatives Demand:Bitcoin futures maintain a 12% premium over spot prices, reflecting robust demand for leveraged long positions.Options market data shows put options trading at a 2% discount compared to call options, indicating minimal fear of a correction.Traditional Market Influence:The S&P 500 erased its December losses, and 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.59%, hinting at market optimism.Higher Treasury yields reflect inflation expectations, benefiting scarce assets like Bitcoin during liquidity injections.Margin Markets Favor Long Positions:The long-to-short margin ratio at OKX stands at 25x, underscoring bullish positioning. Historical trends show ratios above 40x signal overconfidence, while levels below 5x indicate bearish sentiment.Economic Uncertainty and Stagnation Fears:Bitcoin's (BTC) correlation with the S&P 500 remains high at 64%, as concerns over economic stagnation weigh on sentiment.The Federal Reserve scaled back rate-cut projections for 2025, easing fears of immediate corporate earnings declines and real estate financing challenges.Outlook:Despite economic uncertainties and record outflows from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), BTC’s ability to recover from the $92,458 retest reinforces bullish momentum. Market sentiment supports a short-term rally to $105,000, with potential upside beyond this milestone.

Dan Morehead, founder of Pantera Capital, revealed in a recent interview that the Pantera Bitcoin Fund has achieved an annual compound growth rate of 89% over the past 11 years, which means that it doubles every year on average. Dan Morehead said that in any ordinary asset class, if an asset doubles in a year, you really shouldn't buy it, because it may indicate an overvaluation, but Bitcoin is different. However, there is a very important investment principle here: your investment amount should be controlled within a range that will not affect the stability of your family even if you lose 85%.

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a sharp 4% price dip on Dec. 26, falling to $95,000 following an erroneous Bitcoin (BTC) dominance chart on TradingView, which falsely showed dominance collapsing to 0%. The glitch triggered a knee-jerk reaction in the markets, resulting in $33 million in BTC-long liquidations within four hours.Key Highlights:Dominance Glitch Sparks Panic:The TradingView error caused widespread confusion, prompting traders to panic sell.Bitcoin dominance has been a crucial metric for traders, with its recent reversal from 61.5% sparking discussions about an upcoming altseason.Liquidation Frenzy:Monitoring resource CoinGlass recorded $33 million in liquidations of BTC longs.The reaction underscores the market's sensitivity to dominace data amid thin holiday trading conditions.Altcoin Momentum Anticipated:Analysts, including Aqua and Michaël van de Poppe, predict altcoins could soon outperform Bitcoin.Altcoin market cap is currently $1.5 trillion, far below the $10–15 trillion peak valuation seen in the Dotcom bubble, suggesting significant upside potential.Bullish Q1 Outlook for Bitcoin:Traders like Eljaboom and Xoom anticipate a bullish breakout for Bitcoin in Q1 2025.A "measured move" from current patterns could push BTC to the $110K–$130K range, with $120K as a realistic short-term target.Despite the volatility, market sentiment remains optimistic, with traders positioning for potential gains in both Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins in the coming months.

Recently, several users on X reported a phishing attack disguised as a Zoom meeting link. One of the victims installed malware after clicking on the malicious Zoom meeting link, resulting in the theft of crypto assets and losses of millions of dollars.

Dan Morehead, founder of Pantera Capital, said in a recent interview with Bankless that Bitcoin has indeed grown to a considerable size, and we can't see a 1,000-fold increase because that would consume all the energy on the planet. However, it is entirely possible to increase 10 times to a market value of $15 trillion compared to the total global financial assets of $500 trillion. Dan Morehead added that he would not predict the situation 50 years later, but in our current investment cycle, such as a 5-10 year time frame, it is completely reasonable for Bitcoin to increase 10 times from its current position, and it will not appear crazy or overvalued.

TL;DR Bitcoin-based Runes have seen a dramatic decline in activity, now accounting for just 1.67% of daily Bitcoin transactions, down from over 50% earlier this year, as investor focus shifts to Ethereum and AI. Factors contributing to the decline include Bitcoin price volatility and a shift in market dynamics towards Ethereum-based NFTs, memecoins, and AI ... source: https://crypto-economy.com/bitcoin-based-runes-see-record-low-activity-as-ethereum-and-ai-steal-the-spotlight/

Solana ecosystem liquidity platform Meteora posted on the X platform that donations to Mira need to be wary of bad actors posting fraudulent links. It is reported that the market value of Meme coin MIRA once exceeded 75 million US dollars, and the market fluctuated greatly. The largest holder of the token @blader said that all proceeds will be directly used for rare disease research in Hankinson Laboratory. Previously, ai16z founder Shaw announced that he had donated 100,000 $degenai to Mira, a brain tumor patient.

Starting from January 1, 2025, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China will add a new trading institution called "Hong Kong Gold Exchange". The institution will be renamed and corporatized from the Gold and Silver Trading Center, which has been operating locally for 114 years, and plans to build a vault and digital gold. (investing)

Banking, long considered a neutral utility, has become a battleground for cultural, political and economic conflict. The question we must ask is: when financial access is weaponized, who decides who can participate in the modern economy?

The on-chain AI agent version of "Love, Death and Robots", where the selection pressure comes from the attention and money of crypto users.

Unlike his son, who is a controversial character in China, Maye Musk is adored in the country she claims to visit nearly every month.

Stablecoin, Crypto Market, YBB Capital: Break through difficulties and reshape the future. Outlook for the crypto world in 2025. Golden Finance, let players compete freely and let builders continue to move forward.

How does the currency mixing protocol Railgun protect user on-chain privacy in compliance with regulations?

China has approved the construction of what is set to become the world’s largest hydropower dam, a monumental project on the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau. This initiative could significantly impact millions living downstream in India and Bangladesh.

Belgian artist Carl De Keyzer used photos from his Russia travels to create AI images for his book Putin’s Dream. Sharing them on Instagram sparked backlash and follower loss over questions of ethics and authenticity.

In the past week, Stablecoin Season and Superchain narrative, I would like to share my thoughts on the DeFi world.