Analysis: Options data shows ETF passage won’t send BTC significantly higher

Options data from Greeks.Live shows little IV and price volatility across the major expirations. It is worth noting that the IV of the January 12 option, which is closely related to the ETF, not only did not increase, but actually declined. In addition, the trading volume of these options is very low, accounting for only 2% of the total trading volume for the day. Such low levels are rare. This data means that the market may have already factored in the potential approval of the ETF, and even if it were approved, it would not necessarily lead to a significant price increase. The lackluster options activity suggests a level of anticipation and caution among investors, possibly suggesting that anticipated approvals are already priced in, limiting the potential for substantial returns.