According to CoinDesk, the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) on bitcoin has crossed over the 200-week SMA for the first time on record, confirming the golden cross. This marker, often referred to as a 'golden cross,' indicates a positive shift in asset prices. Many traders see crossovers as forward-looking indicators, with the golden version signaling a long-term bull market ahead. However, the bullish interpretation could be challenged because averages are based on past data and trends to lag prices.
The first golden cross on the weekly chart is the result of bitcoin rallying over 70% to $42,700 in four months. Seasoned traders consider crossovers as lagging indicators, often coinciding with trend exhaustion. For example, the weekly death cross confirmed in early 2023 marked the bottom of the bear market. Bitcoin's daily chart golden and death crossovers have a mixed record of predicting bullish and bearish trends.
Bitcoin's rally has already stalled, with the cryptocurrency trading 10% lower from highs near $49,000 registered after 11 spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) began trading in the U.S. last Thursday. According to Greg Cipolaro, Global Head of Research at NYDIG, the bullish momentum has waned due to early ETF flows failing to match the sky-high market expectations. He stated in a newsletter Tuesday that the net flow of funds for the ETFs has been $965 million, including seed funds, but the spot price is down from the launch-driven euphoria as investors set unreasonably high launch expectations.