Analysis: Bitcoin traders prepare for a 'fat tail effect', focus on Trump's Bitcoin conference speech

Options market activity on Deribit showed a significant increase in the "butterfly index", indicating that the market is anticipating more extreme moves. Greg Magadini, head of derivatives at Amberdata, said in an email: “This week, we will hear Trump’s speech at the Nashville Bitcoin Conference. As long as Trump is still in the lead in the election, this will be the case. Potential catalysts for a 'big event' this week. Derivatives markets appear to agree, and the pricing we're seeing supports that assertion." “We don’t talk about it often, but what’s notable this week is the spike in volatility in the 25-delta wing relative to ATM volatility. This type of activity in the options market reflects expectations for higher return distribution Kurtosis, or fat tails,” Magadini added. (CoinDesk)