Bitfinex Alpha: If the Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, it may stimulate Bitcoin's rise, but it may be accompanied by a correction

Bitfinex Alpha said in its latest report that this month's US interest rate decision is expected to have a significant impact on Bitcoin's short-term volatility and long-term trend. Bitcoin has risen by more than 32% since the beginning of August, driven by market participants' expectations that the Federal Reserve will make dovish remarks. A 25 basis point rate cut may mark the beginning of a typical easing cycle, and Bitcoin may achieve long-term price gains as liquidity increases and recession concerns ease. On the other hand, a more aggressive 50 basis point rate cut may lead to price increases, but may be followed by a pullback as recession concerns increase. In the past week, we have seen spot holders reduce risk while perpetual market speculators try to "buy on dips", and we still observe a large number of open long positions in BTC perpetual contracts. It is expected that a 15-20% drop may occur when the rate cut occurs this month, and the bottom of BTC may be between $40,000-50,000, because the cycle peak calculated in percentage returns will decrease by about 60-70% in each cycle, and the average bull market pullback has also decreased. But this logic could easily be overturned if macroeconomic conditions change. These are uncertain times for traders. Historically, September has been a volatile month for Bitcoin, with an average return of -4.78% and a typical peak-to-trough draw of about 24.6%.