The strange thing about the US non-farm payrolls in August: 70% probability of being lower than expected

Adam Button, an analyst at the financial website Forexlive, pointed out that the August non-farm payrolls report in the United States frequently shows a seasonal anomaly: in the past 23 years, the data before revision in August reports were lower than expected in 17 years. It is worth noting that since the data in the past two years were higher than expected, although only by 15,000 and 17,000 respectively, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics may also be improving their seasonal adjustment methods. For more than 20 years, the probability of data being lower than expected is 70%. Another thing worth noting is that the disappointing July employment report may have been affected by Hurricane Beryl and fell, and there may be a rebound in August. (Jinshi)