10x Research said in its latest report that stablecoin issuance increased sharply following the July 31 FOMC meeting when the Federal Reserve postponed a key interest rate cut decision until September. Over the next few weeks, nearly $10 billion in stablecoin issuance will flood the cryptocurrency market with liquidity, significantly exceeding the liquidity of Bitcoin ETFs. Circle typically targets more regulated institutions, but recent stablecoin inflows have been as high as 40%, indicating increased allocations from large market players. USDC minting could indicate an increase in DeFi activity. Stablecoin inflows have reached $35 billion so far this year, bringing the total value of stablecoins in circulation to $160 billion.
After the FOMC meeting in July, U.S. bond yields fell sharply, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below the 4.0% threshold, triggering a resurgence in DeFi activities. In August, the monthly fee for Aave’s lending platform soared to $43 million, exceeding 2024 It peaked at $42 million in March. Although activity slowed in September, activity and expenses are likely to rebound following the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut.
In notable changes following last week’s FOMC meeting, Bitcoin’s dominance has waned while Ethereum’s gas fees have soared, aided by a surge in altcoin activity across the ecosystem. If the Fed remains willing to cut interest rates, the pursuit of high-beta altcoins may gain further momentum. Retail cryptocurrency trading activity in South Korea supports this trend, with daily trading volumes currently hovering around $2 billion. Although still down from $13 billion in early March 2024, altcoins have dominated trading over the past week, surpassing Bitcoin.
If Trump is re-elected, he may seek to overstimulate the U.S. economy, which could force the Fed to reverse its rate-cutting cycle as early as the first half of 2025. However, the focus right now is on Bitcoin’s recent break above $65,000, with a target of $70,000 in the next two weeks and a new all-time high by the end of October. In addition, the possibility of a rebound in the fourth quarter is extremely high, and the increase may have started in the early stage.