Greeks.live: Most market participants are cautious about betting on this month's market, and the current mainstream sentiment is to continue to wait and see

Adam, a macro researcher at Greeks.live, posted on Currently, based on 30-day federal funds futures prices, the market's expected probability of the next 25Bp interest rate cut is 85%, and the expected probability of no interest rate cut is 15%. This data is significantly lower than last month. At the same time, the predicted probability of Trump being elected president has increased significantly in recent days, and the balance of the U.S. election on November 5 is tilting towards Trump. Judging from option data, the market’s volatility expectations for October are low, with the on-the-money IV already below 45% for that month, and the on-the-money IV for the November 8 expiry one week later is 55%. This shows that most market participants are more cautious about betting on this month's market, and continuing to wait and see is the current mainstream sentiment.