JPMorgan Chase: The crypto market will be affected by several key factors in the coming months, including Uptober and interest rate cuts

JPMorgan analysts noted that the crypto market will be affected by several key factors in the coming months, including seasonal "Uptober" trends, Fed rate cuts, Bitcoin ETF options trading, and Ethereum's "Pectra" upgrade. The report mentioned that historical data shows that more than 70% of Bitcoin returns in "Uptober" months are positive, which may have a positive impact on market behavior. In addition, despite the Fed's recent rate cut, JPMorgan analysts pointed out that the broader cryptocurrency market has not yet seen the expected positive impact. They said that while a falling interest rate environment generally supports risky assets, the correlation between the total market value of cryptocurrencies and the federal funds rate remains weak at 0.46. "Since the Fed's rate cut on September 18, we have not seen the expected low interest rate 'surge' in cryptocurrency prices," they wrote, adding that the market may wait for more lasting stability before turning decisively. In addition, analysts acknowledged that it is difficult to accurately predict how cryptocurrencies will react to interest rate cycles due to a lack of historical data. "Crypto assets really only emerged in the early to mid-2010s, and interest rates have been close to zero for most of their existence. Stable interest rates, not just low interest rates, may be most beneficial to these markets." Another potential catalyst is the recently approved spot Bitcoin ETF options trading. Analysts expect this could deepen liquidity and attract new market participants. (The Block)