In a new study, Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, estimates that Bitcoin could reach $73,800 before the U.S. presidential election in November, a 12% increase from current levels.
To support this, Kendrick cites the changing pattern of Bitcoin and MicroStrategy's stock multiple (stock multiple = total assets ÷ total common shares). MicroStrategy is known for hoarding a large amount of Bitcoin, with its reserves recently reaching 252,000. After trading relatively in sync with the Bitcoin price (green line) throughout 2024, the MicroStrategy stock multiple (blue line) has broken out.
Kendrick said two fundamental factors that caused this premium could push Bitcoin higher, and the gap between the two will narrow over time. The first factor is the news last month that BNY Mellon received an exemption from Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 (SAB 121), an unpopular legislation that forces dealers to list cryptocurrency holdings on their balance sheets. And loosening regulations are generally considered a positive factor for Bitcoin. Second, the exemption from Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 121 is closely tied to MicroStrategy’s announced plans to become a “Bitcoin bank” that would offer Bitcoin capital market instruments in the future. Kendrick expects that future exemptions could allow the company to earn income by lending out Bitcoin.