CICC: In extreme cases, the Fed may resume raising interest rates in 2025

In the article "The Potential Impact of Trump's Policies on the US Economy", CICC pointed out: "Under the normal assumption, we expect the Fed to continue to cut interest rates, but the rate of reduction will slow down and the terminal (neutral) interest rate will be higher. In the extreme assumption, the Fed's attitude will turn "hawkish" and restart rate hikes in 2025, because policymakers are unlikely to tolerate inflation rising back above 5%." The article further pointed out: "Considering that curbing inflation generally requires nominal policy interest rates to be higher than inflation (that is, the actual policy interest rate is positive), this means that the Fed may need to raise interest rates by 75 to 100 basis points in 2025." (Odaily Note: The United States repeatedly raised interest rates slightly during the interest rate cut cycle from 1984 to 1986, mainly to deal with the risks of inflation and economic overheating.)