The September PCE price index will be released tonight, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 96.1%.

The US PCE price index for September will be released at 20:30 tonight. According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 96.1%. The market expects the PCE price index to rise by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year in September. The core PCE price index is expected to increase from 0.1% in the previous month to 0.3% month-on-month, while the year-on-year growth rate will slow slightly to 2.6%, the lowest level since February 2021.