A recent report from VanEck reiterated that Bitcoin will reach $180,000 at the top of this cycle. Analysts said they are confident that the next phase of Bitcoin's bull run is "just beginning," with an increasingly favorable regulatory environment in the United States and rising institutional interest as key drivers that will push Bitcoin to this target price within the next 18 months.
Based on historical patterns, the report compares the current cycle to the post-election rally in 2020, when Bitcoin's price more than doubled by the end of the year, ultimately achieving a 137% gain in 2021.
Citing key market indicators, analysts predict that similar trends will occur in this cycle. For example, Bitcoin's market share reached 59% in November, the highest level since March 2021, reflecting renewed confidence in the asset.
The report also highlights strong on-chain indicators. Bitcoin's network activity showed resilience, with daily transactions near all-time highs and transfers up 118% month-on-month. Although the number of transactions fell by 15%, larger payloads pushed its average transaction size to a record high. The report further added: "With Bitcoin prices hitting all-time highs, about 99% of holding addresses are currently in a state of floating profit."
Despite its optimism about Bitcoin's short-term performance, the report also warned that Bitcoin could be overheated, and an analysis of perpetual futures funding rates showed that sustained high rates often coincide with cycle tops. As of mid-November, funding rates have exceeded thresholds that have historically been associated with strong short-term gains, but with diminishing returns over the longer term.
Bitcoin's unrealized profit indicator further supports the bullish outlook. The report noted that relative unrealized profits (a measure of paper gains) are typically in the range of mid-bull markets. However, if these levels are close to historical peaks, it could mean an increased risk of a market correction as profit-taking accelerates, "Historically, elevated 30-day moving average (DMA) RUP levels (especially above 0.60 and 0.70) indicate strong market sentiment and the potential for overheating."
Anais
