Bitfinex Alpha: BTC is still expected to break through $100,000 with strong inflows of ETFs and funds and increased retail interest

Bitfinex Alpha reports that despite some brief volatility last week, Bitcoin ended November on a high note. BTC experienced its biggest pullback since the U.S. election, falling 8.64% to $90,911 during the week before quickly rebounding to a record monthly close of $96,506. At the end of November, Bitcoin closed with a staggering 37.3% gain, making it the second-best month so far in 2024. This outstanding performance continues to highlight Bitcoin's strong momentum, and Bitcoin is in a good position as it enters December. Historically, December has been a turbulent month for Bitcoin, but in the years of halving, the asset has averaged a return of 38.86%. Given the current bull market dynamics, Bitcoin is expected to rise further, although volatility may occur in the short term. Any short-term pullback may be triggered by ETF fund outflows and profit-taking by long-term holders (LTH). Interestingly, the short-term holder (STH) supply is close to its cycle high of 3,282,000 BTC. Historically, the last stage of a bull market begins when STH supply breaks the cycle high before the halving. This shift indicates increasing retail participation, but also highlights the market's reliance on upcoming demand to absorb LTH profit-taking. If short-term holder demand can meet long-term holder supply, BTC will break $100,000.