Macroeconomic outlook for next week: The Fed’s December rate cut may be a foregone conclusion

Swap traders reduced their bets on the Fed's path of easing policy after a series of mixed data this week. The Dow fell 1.82% this week, the S&P 500 fell 0.64%, ending its three-week winning streak, and the Nasdaq rose 0.34%. Bitcoin rose for seven consecutive weeks, the longest winning streak since 2021. The last important monetary policy week in 2024 will attract investors' attention. According to statistics, at least 22 central banks, accounting for two-fifths of the global economy, will determine borrowing costs by the close of next Friday. The results are likely to highlight that the momentum of loose policies now looks increasingly unbalanced as policymakers weigh different risks in the coming year. Here are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week: Monday 15:30, European Central Bank President Lagarde will speak; Tuesday 04:45, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem will speak; Thursday 03:00, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and a summary of economic expectations; Thursday 03:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference; Thursday (specific time to be determined), the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision; Thursday 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a monetary policy press conference; Thursday 21:30, the revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the third quarter of the United States, the initial quarterly rate of real personal consumption expenditures in the third quarter of the United States, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in December. It is worth mentioning that the Federal Reserve's preferred basic inflation indicator, the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE), will be released next Friday. Economists predict that the November PCE (excluding food and energy) released on Friday may rise by 0.2%, which is the smallest increase in three months. The report will also show solid growth in consumer spending and income, indicating that the economy is resilient. (Jinshi)