Christmas season turmoil may hit US stocks and bonds, and lack of liquidity will amplify market volatility

This week, the Federal Reserve finally confirmed the long-awaited "turnaround" of the market. The central bank's statement this week and the update of its economic forecasts had a huge impact on the market. Market participants currently expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by about 40 basis points by December 2025, and U.S. Treasury yields rose in response. Bitcoin fell from its all-time high earlier this week. Bitcoin continued its decline on Friday and once approached $95,000 in European trading. Earlier, Bitcoin had just set a record high of more than $108,000. This round of decline in the currency circle has a greater impact on altcoins such as Ethereum and Dogecoin. In addition, U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that directly invest in Bitcoin also ended 15 consecutive days of inflows this week, setting a record of $680 million in outflows, highlighting the shift in market sentiment. Due to the coming of Christmas, the market will be relatively calm next week, but there will still be some relatively influential data, but due to thin liquidity, market volatility may become large. Here are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week: 23:00 on Monday, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for December; 21:30 on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending December 21. For the US dollar, with the overall hawkish bias within the Federal Reserve, it is not expected to easily lose its throne gained this year, although the low trading volume during the holidays may cause some unnecessary fluctuations. In general, if there is any market turmoil during the holiday period, it is more likely to hit US stocks and US bonds. The Fed's hawkish stance has not been welcomed by Wall Street, and as US Treasury yields continue to rise, the sell-off may intensify. (Jinshi)