Economic Slowdown Predicted For 2025 Amid Market Concerns

According to BlockBeats, Jim Paulsen, Chief Investment Strategist at The Leuthold Group, expressed in his blog on December 31 that despite growing concerns among policymakers and investors about potential economic overheating, an unexpected economic slowdown is more likely in 2025. Such a slowdown could eventually lead to a stock market correction of at least 10%. Paulsen highlighted that historical data since 2003 indicates that fluctuations in bond yields often lead to economic surprises. A decline in yields typically suggests economic improvement three months later, and vice versa. He noted that the current bond yield, hovering around 4.6% and reaching 4.63% last week, suggests that the economic surprise index will slow to -35 in the first quarter, along with a GDP slowdown. Paulsen warned that if concerns about an unexpected economic slowdown intensify, the stock market might halt its upward trend, potentially resulting in a correction of 10% to 15%.