Arthur Hayes: The crypto market may reach a local peak in mid-to-late March; Maelstrom has entered the DeSci field

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, said in a post that he believes the crypto market will peak in mid-to-late March. The Fed's quantitative tightening (QT) will reduce liquidity by about $180 billion and inject an additional $237 billion in liquidity due to the reduction in RRP balances caused by the adjustment of the reward rate. A total of $57 billion in net liquidity was injected. The Treasury Department may pay government expenses through TGA until May-June, and then need to raise the debt ceiling, which will have a negative impact on liquidity. In addition, peak tax seasons (such as mid-April) will further suppress market liquidity. If the factors affecting the TGA balance are the only factors that determine cryptocurrency prices, a local market peak is expected at the end of the first quarter. In 2024, Bitcoin hit a local high of about $73,000 in mid-March, then went sideways and began a multi-month decline on April 11, just before the 15th tax deadline. He added that the Trump team's disappointment with his proposed pro-cryptocurrency and pro-business legislation can be compensated by the extremely positive US dollar liquidity environment, which increased by as much as $612 billion in the first quarter. He also said: "As the chief investment officer of Maelstrom, I will encourage risk-takers in the fund to shift their risk to DEGEN. The first step in this direction is our decision to enter the booming decentralized science (DeSci) junk coin field. We like undervalued junk coins and have purchased BIO; VITA; ATH; GROW; PSY; CRYO; NEURON."