4 ways to kill Bitcoin

Author: Shang.bit, co-founder of EMC Labs Source: X, @Shang2046

Calm down and talk about what I have been thinking about recently - 4 possibilities to kill Bitcoin:

1. Black boxing of the asset side: Last night in Space, I talked about the possible long-term negative impact of ETFs: that is, when the market value of its holdings exceeds 30%, plus the 10% of the CEX, the 10% lost and derivatives In the “coining” of the product, black box currency holdings accounted for more than 50%, actually breaking through the decentralization and liquidity of the Bitcoin asset side

In fact , the market value of the already existing Bitcoin spot + futures ETF, including Grayscale, has reached approximately US$33 billion, accounting for 3.5% of the circulation ratio. I believe that in the next two cycles, it is really possible to see the market value accounting for more than 20%

2. Nationalization of the mining side: miners no longer enjoy 1 year To get back the capital, the annualized return will be more than 30% in 4 years, but will gradually shift to the average return rate of the mainstream money market, which is less than 5%. The national team, various pension funds, and university foundations will become the mainstream of mining. Similarly, they will seriously threaten the decentralization of Bitcoin

3. New Cold War entity sanctions: With the extreme mainstreaming of Bitcoin, Bitcoin will become the A weapon in the game between the United States and other major powers. Entity list sanctions targeting specific wallet addresses will become increasingly common on both the mining side and the asset side. This will greatly challenge the core value of Bitcoin’s super-sovereign asset

4. Extreme deflation brings self-freezing: Bitcoin Constant was originally used by Satoshi Nakamoto to fight The central bank is over-issuing currency, but when its consensus enters the mainstream world, people will learn a basic common sense that any Bitcoin spent today will be worth more tomorrow. This makes the hold sentiment get heavier and heavier, until it reaches the extreme "freeze" and no one uses Bitcoin

The solution: What makes you successful may also be Destroying you, Satoshi Nakamoto's genius design is the real threat to Bitcoin. How to break the situation? Of course, you can ignore it. There is a high probability that these things will happen after the market value of Bitcoin surpasses gold (the price is above 700,000 US dollars)

But in the end we have to face it, I believe that the decentralization of Bitcoin brings about super-sovereignty and free competition on entities. It will generate natural game forces and allow asymmetry to always exist in the Bitcoin world to fight against the actual situation of a certain country or a certain type of entity. control.