Today is New Year's Day 2025, the first day of the new year. I wish all our readers a happy New Year's Day.
2024 has passed in a blink of an eye. Looking back on 2024, I think my biggest gain is not that I participated in any new projects in the crypto ecosystem, or discovered any interesting new species, but that I read some books that greatly changed my worldview and listened to some classes that enlightened me.
These books did not directly tell me which coins to buy to make money, nor did they directly tell me how high which coins could rise. It sounds like a "useless" "dragon slaying technique" for investment.
But these books and these classes allow me to stand at a higher perspective to see the possible future development path of a country and the possible future development prospects of an ecosystem, so that I can have a clearer idea and a clear framework when making choices at some key crossroads.
When I shared Mr. Buffett’s investment views with you in previous articles, I once shared a view that the old man himself clearly stated:
Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger hardly look at the macroeconomics of the United States or macroeconomic indicators. The two old gentlemen also repeatedly emphasized that they could not guess the policies of the Federal Reserve or the Treasury Department at all, and their decisions had nothing to do with these macroeconomic policies.
But the old man also emphasized that he was lucky to be born in the United States. He said that if he was born in Bangladesh, he would not have such good luck.
At the shareholders' meeting, the old man was repeatedly asked a question:
Why does he believe that the US stock market will surely create glory again, and the undervalued price will definitely catch up with the intrinsic value?
The old man pointed out that it was the legal system and market economy of the United States.
For the old gentleman's reply, I still have a doubt in my heart:
For those who do not live in the United States, should they look at the macroeconomics?
If you don't look at the macroeconomics, the stocks bought on the Shanghai Stock Exchange before 1949 will become waste paper after 1949.
If you want to look at the macroeconomics, how will the macroeconomic factors affect our investment and even our wealth? And what kind of ideas and frameworks should we use to judge the macroeconomics?
This kind of judgment of the macroeconomic environment is very important for individuals in a country and nation at a crossroads.
At such a crossroads, as ordinary people, how we choose will determine our fate in the next ten or even decades.
In 1902, whether the teenager in Gaochang Township, Jiangsu Province chose to stay in the local area and continue to be a farmer or to go to Shanghai Concession to take risks determined whether he would be "Du Yuesheng" or "Du Yuesheng" in the future.
In 1905, whether the farmer in Shandong chose to go to Guandong or go south to the five ports for trade, his fate thereafter would be completely different.
In 1949, whether the farmers struggling on the food and clothing line in Guangdong chose to stay in the mainland or go to Hong Kong like refugees determined his life experience for the next 30 years.
In 2018, some people thought that two iconic things had happened, so they completely cleared all their domestic assets (including real estate), but in 2021, some people still leveraged and rushed into the housing market.
If the decision is wrong, not only the wealth accumulated by ancestors for several lifetimes may vanish in an instant, but even their life and property may be in danger; if the decision is right, not only peace and smoothness, but even a leap across social classes may be possible.
Many of these people made very wise decisions in the eyes of later generations, but they may not have much ability, read much, or have much foresight. Perhaps it was just an idea that came up with a snap of the head and gritted teeth.
Despite this, I never give up. Is there any way to learn lessons from history, find the rules in it, and predict the macro environment in the future that will change the fate of life in advance?
I found the answer in my study in 2024.
Catherine
Hui Xin
Davin
Kikyo
Clement
Alex