A simple valuation method for Flock

Author: NingNing

Flock TGE. When I was researching this project before, I divided AI x Crypto projects into two types: AI MeMe and AI x Crypto Utility projects. AI MeMe=Tokenize (Attention &Cult Culture of AI Themes), AI x Crypto Utility Projects=Tokenize (Monetization (AI))/(Democratization (AI) Narrative).

With the weakening of the price of AI MeMe's representative projects $GOAT/$ACT in the secondary market and the collapse in the attention market, the attention and liquidity of the crypto market are focused on the light industry category of AI x Crypto Utility such as AI Agent, and the heavy industry projects of AI x Crypto Utility represented by $FET and $TAO are not well priced.

Now, as a new generation of representative projects of heavy industrial projects of AI x Crypto Utility, Flock will launch its token on Bybit Launchpool on December 31st. I am curious about how the current crypto market will eventually price it.

If we use the simple valuation model I used before, we must first choose the benchmark object. Between FET and TAO, TAO may be more suitable as the benchmark object for Flock. After all, FET previously spent 100 million US dollars to purchase a large amount of GPU computing power as fixed assets.

This morning, I took a quick look at the latest fundamentals of Flock, as follows:

Financing background: Recently completed a strategic round of financing of 3 million US dollars, bringing its cumulative financing total to 11 million US dollars. This round of financing was led by Digital Currency Group (DCG). DCG also laid out AI leading projects such as $TAO $WLD.

Team technical strength: The team has top academic backgrounds such as Oxford University and BCG and rich industry experience. FLock is the only AI infrastructure project funded by the Ethereum Foundation.

AI narrative: Flock combines edge computing power and ML federated learning. By sinking ML training tasks to user terminals, such as edge devices such as mobile phones, tablets and laptops, it can fully utilize the idle computing power of edge devices while ensuring the privacy of data.

Real use cases: Flock's official document lists 5 real use cases, including the Move language LLM fine-tuned in cooperation with Aptos, the question-and-answer robot Farcaster GPT in cooperation with Farcaster and Scroll communities, Scroll GPT, the integration of nodes and Akash computing power, Web3 AI Agent for text-to-SQL, and privacy-preserving medical care.

Compared with TAO, Flock is not inferior to TAO in financing background and team technical strength. In AI narrative, TAO focuses on LLM coordination network, and Flock focuses on training LLM through federated learning on edge devices. In real use cases, TAO is mainly used for AI large model split-plate projects, while Flock is mainly used to serve the personalized needs of the crypto community.

Overall, Flock is more in line with my investment aesthetics. However, since TAO has the first-mover advantage in the track and a high proportion of market mind share, and the current market environment is not as friendly to new coins as the first two weeks, it is estimated that the fair price of Flock after opening (20-day average price) will be around 20% to 30% of TAO FDV, that is, FDV is about $2 billion to $3 billion.