Author: Gracy Chen, Managing Director of Bitget Source: crypto.news Translation: Shan Oppa< /p>
After experiencing a long crypto bear market, we must always be prepared to keep warm just like in winter. I can’t help but wonder: When will spring come?
However, my feelings have changed now. It’s not just looking forward to summer or the coming bull market, it’s feeling like you’ve taken off your thick cotton jacket and put on a lightweight T-shirt. I think there are clear signs that a bull market has quietly arrived.
2023 will be a memorable year for the crypto industry. The total crypto market capitalization surged nearly 93% from $794 billion on January 1, 2023, to $1.53 trillion as of December 5. As 2023 comes to an end, it’s time to look ahead and set our sights on the upcoming year 2024. In this article, I’ve rounded up the most anticipated crypto events of 2024.
In 2024, I believe there will be six different market catalysts that may become key points of interest for market participants and potentially create new investments Chance.
Spot Bitcoin ETF approved in the United States
October 2021, U.S. Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first BTC-based exchange-traded fund in the United States. U.S. financial regulators have not yet approved a Bitcoin spot ETF, but I expect that to change soon.
On November 30, SEC officials met with representatives of the well-known crypto asset management company Grayscale to seek to convert its existing Grayscale Bitcoin Trust to an exchange trade. fund. The company won a key court battle against the agency in August, legally forcing the latter to review its BTC ETF application.
A formal meeting was held a day earlier between financial regulators BlackRock and Nasdaq. The asset manager filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF with the SEC in June and a spot Ethereum ETF with the SEC in November. In addition to the above developments, Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart said that he believes the probability of the SEC approving a Bitcoin ETF early next year is about 90%. Analysts believe the approval will take place between January 8 and 10.
The current market is optimistic that the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF will play an important role in institutions seeking to achieve diversified asset allocation through Bitcoin investment.
Ethereum Cancun Upgrade
Major upgrades to the Ethereum network are usually mid-year One of the most important events. This will be the case in 2024, when the Cancun upgrade is expected to take place in the first quarter of 2024, introducing the long-awaited original danksharding.
Proto-danksharding is a prototype of the iteration of danksharding technology developed by Ethereum. Due to Ethereum's limited scalability, transactions become slow and expensive during periods of heavy usage. Developers plan to leverage sharding, dividing the network into smaller parts called shards that can independently execute smart contracts and process transactions.
After the Cancun upgrade, Rollup-based layer 2 chains (such as Arbitrum One, Optimism and Base) can add cheaper data to the Ethereum master through Blobs Blocks on the network, this data can be sent and appended to blocks that are not accessible to the Ethereum virtual machine. Through blobs and transactions carrying blobs, L2 can cost-effectively store and retrieve off-chain data on the Ethereum mainnet, making L2 transactions significantly cheaper after the Cancun upgrade.
The Cancun upgrade will also provide other benefits to Ethereum users, including optimizing block space, reducing data storage costs, improving cross-chain communication and reducing SELF- DESTRUCT opcode to enhance security features.
U.S. interest rate hikes are over
Since the beginning of 2022, the federal funds rate has continued to increase until In the third quarter of 2023, the Federal Reserve attempted to combat inflation in the United States. From January 2022 to August 2023, the effective rate increased from 0.08% to the current target rate of 5.25% and 5.5%.
With U.S. inflation falling from a high of 9.1% in June 2022 to a low of 3.2% in October 2023, I believe the Fed’s The interest rate hike cycle is coming to an end. The market expects the first interest rate cut to occur as early as May 2024. Driven by this, positive sentiment in the cryptocurrency industry is expected to increase, increasing the appeal of Bitcoin and other digital assets.
Why is this important to us? If we think of various financial markets as a series of different levels of pools, then at the top we find the U.S. currency and bond markets, which can be compared to the largest pools.
Currently, interest rates are high, resulting in a large amount of "water" in the pool. However, once interest rates are lowered, water starts flowing to smaller pools of funds, such as stocks and cryptocurrencies. When interest rates fall, the bond market becomes less attractive and individuals are more likely to invest their money in assets that offer higher risk and reward, such as cryptocurrencies.
Circle IPO
According to a report in November 2023, USD Coin ( ;USDC ) Stablecoin issuer Circle is preparing to go public via an initial public offering (IPO) early next year. The move is expected to support the adoption of crypto stablecoins as it will make the company the first among the issuers to go public.
However, this is not Circle's first attempt to go public. A year ago, the stablecoin issuer terminated its agreement with special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) Concord Acquisition Corp. The reason for the termination was reportedly due to the SEC's failure to approve the deal, which was first announced in July 2021.
Bitcoin Halving
Just like Ethereum’s major upgrade, Bitcoin Halving Half is one of the most important developments in the crypto industry in 2024. However, unlike ETH hard forks, these events occur approximately every four years.
This event will reduce the number of new Bitcoins miners receive from each newly mined block by 50%. By cutting the supply of new coins in half, Bitcoin will become more scarce and inflation will decrease.
As supply and demand dynamics intensify, I expect the price of Bitcoin to surge after the event. In fact, all previous halvings have been accompanied by major cryptocurrency bull runs.
FTX case is about to be resolved
FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was sentenced last November Committed to multi-billion dollar fraud. Approval has been obtained to liquidate nearly $880 million in assets to repay creditors as part of the resolution process. These developments indicate that FTX is gradually entering the exchange restructuring stage. The resolution of the matter is expected to restore some investor trust and regulatory clarity, potentially attracting new retail funds to the industry. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler expressed his willingness to consider restarting FTX if new leadership replaces SBF and the exchange operates within legal limits. If approved by regulators, such a reboot could help increase trust in FTX, or at least mitigate the negative impact of the scandal.
The road to the next crypto bull run
As US approves BTC spot ETF , Decun upgrade, and other important catalysts, we are likely to witness a Bitcoin super cycle in 2024. However, potential negatives could emerge next year.
For example, the now-defunct Mt.Gox exchange is expected to pay back 137,000 BTC to creditors, and the U.S. government plans to liquidate assets seized in the Silk Road case Bitcoin Collection. These events can create selling pressure and could cause cryptocurrency prices to fall. Additionally, the global regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies remains uncertain, which opens the door to unforeseen events.
On the other hand, I believe that the BTC liquidation in the Mt. Gox case and the US government’s seizure of Silk Road may signal the emergence of a real bull market. This is likely to be accompanied by widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies and the introduction of innovations. Whatever the future holds, it’s important to “do your own research” (DYOR) and prepare for what could be the most bullish market in cryptocurrency history.
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