Can the viral Notcoin become a meme coin that breaks through the Ton ecosystem?

Author Alfre, LD Capital

1. TON with 900 million monthly active users

The Open Netwotk (TON) was originally named Telegram Open Network. It was created by the Telegram team in 2018. After being accused by the SEC of unregistered securities issuance in the ICO era, the Telegram team paid a fine to reach a settlement and abandoned the project, which was continued to be developed and operated by the community TON Foundation. Although it has been separated from Telegram in name, the actual connection between the two is still direct. TON has always been the only public chain officially supported by Telegram and continues to be deeply integrated with Telegram. TON will continue to benefit from Telegram's huge user base and traffic entrance. Telegram will build a decentralized digital ecosystem with freedom and privacy by supporting TON.

Telegram has attracted many users around the world with its advocacy of freedom of speech and protection of privacy. It has more than 1.3 billion registered users and nearly 900 million monthly active users (MAU). At the same time, Telegram has great advantages in acquiring Web3 users. Thanks to the relaxed atmosphere of speech and regulatory environment, almost all Web 3.0/Crypto projects operate communities on Telegram, and Telegram's user distribution is concentrated in Asia, Europe, South America and the Middle East. The characteristics of retail investors are more obvious, and the demand for peer-to-peer payment is strong. It is an ideal Web3 group to be converted.

Recently, in addition to Telegram founder Durove's statement that he is considering an IPO; Durove announced the official sales channel of TON tokens in his personal channel; Telegram's advertising platform will be officially open to all advertisers in nearly 100 new countries. In order to ensure fast and secure advertising payments and withdrawals, the TON blockchain will be used exclusively. Content creators will be able to cash out their Toncoins or reinvest them to promote and upgrade their channels. These actions will accelerate the development of the TON network and truly broaden the use cases and scenarios of blockchain.

2. Viral Notcoin

Notcoin is a free and easy-to-play Telegram game. The gameplay is mainly for people to earn coins by clicking on the mobile phone screen. Since its launch on January 1, 2024, its popularity has surged. Currently, the number of participants in the game exceeds 30 million, with an average daily activeness of 5 million, making it the fifth largest channel on Telegram.

According to the TON Foundation's statement and external interviews, Open Builders founder Sasha Plotvinov and her team are building Notcoin. Open Builders is an organization dedicated to financing projects on the TON blockchain. It is related to Tonstarter, which successfully raised $1.5 million in seed funding last year specifically to support projects based on the TON blockchain. In addition, TON's official Twitter has also retweeted Notcoin-related tweets many times, and Notcoin's official Twitter currently has 1.5 million followers.

In early March, Notcoin launched a feature that allows elite players to convert large amounts of in-game currency into NFT vouchers, which can be traded before their tokens are officially issued. Players can choose to exchange 10 million or 100 million game coins for coupon NFTs. Currently, the NFT has been listed on the TON ecosystem NFT trading platform Getgems for advance trading and pricing. When the token is officially issued on the chain, the NFT can be exchanged for tokens.

According to Notcoin's game representative, the token generation event and subsequent airdrops to players will be carried out in late March or early April.

III. Comparison of relevant data

According to data on the 27th, there are about 500,000 Notcoin NFTs in circulation, with a current value of 10M=9TON (calculated at 5U), a market value of approximately US$22.5 million, a total trading volume of 2 million TON, and a transaction amount of approximately 10 million.

Since March 15, the trading volume of Notcoin NFT has become active. On the 25th, the recent highest transaction was 25,000, with an average transaction price of 10M=6.7TON and a transaction volume of US$837,500. On the 26th, 21,000 transactions were made, with an average transaction price of 10M=9.9TON and a transaction volume of US$1,039,500. The highest transaction price appeared on March 13 at 10M=66TON, and the lowest price appeared on March 20 at 10M=3.7TON.

Bybit announced on Monday that the Telegram-based meme coin Notcoin ($NOT) will be listed on its pre-market trading platform from 10:00 a.m. Monday, UTC. According to data on the 27th, the pre-market trading price of bybit was 10M=60–90 U.S. dollars, which is a considerable premium over the NFT market transaction.

Compared with FISH, the number one meme coin in the current TON ecosystem, its current market value is 39 million and its 24-hour trading volume is 2.55 million. In the NFT trading stage, Notcoin's market value and trading volume are about 1/2 of FISH.

Fourth, Conclusion

At present, the increase of meme coins has become an important way for the public chain ecology to break the circle. The TON ecology is currently in a relatively early stage, but backed by the huge number of Telegram users, the development potential is unquestionable. Compared with the development of the TVL of ecological projects, meme-driven popularity has become a more achievable method in the short term. Overall, the Notcoin project has received official support from TON and has a huge user base, and has the opportunity to become a meme coin choice that breaks the circle. However, the risk is that the current token economy is still unclear. More than 20 million US dollars of NFTs have been circulated before the secondary listing, and there will be considerable selling pressure when it is launched. However, based on fundamentals, it is believed that the project has potential in the medium term.