With the Bitcoin halving just 19 days away, traders are closely examining historical trends to anticipate potential market movements. This quadrennial event, set to reduce new Bitcoin issuance to 3.125 BTC per block from the current 6.25 BTC, has historically spurred bullish momentum later in the year. However, the current market sentiment appears uncertain, with Bitcoin experiencing a modest 2.6% gain over the past 14 days, despite retaining most of its gains from the recent surge to all-time highs following the launch of spot ETFs in January.
In the lead-up to Bitcoin's third halving on May 11, 2020, the cryptocurrency was trading around $6,842, with a mid-range market trend after fluctuating between $6,420 and $7,340 throughout April. Despite facing volatile macroeconomic conditions due to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020, Bitcoin rallied by 44% in just 17 days leading up to the halving, reaching a local high of $9,822. However, opportunistic selling pressure pushed the price back to $8,752 by the time of the halving, followed by a minor dip to $8,600 the next day. Nevertheless, Bitcoin's price never fell below this level since then.
BTC/USD 2020 price action. Source: CoinGecko
In the run-up to Bitcoin's second halving on July 9, 2016, the cryptocurrency experienced a slight retracement from its pre-halving peak, trading at $734 with a 4% dip within 24 hours. Despite this, Bitcoin had witnessed a significant 66% rally in the four weeks leading up to the event. Following the halving, Bitcoin experienced an 11% decline before bottoming out at $517 on August 2, marking a 29.5% drop from June 20, 2016. However, Bitcoin eventually surged to new all-time highs in February 2017, seven months after the halving.
BTC/USD price action in 2016. Source: CoinGecko
While Bitcoin's market landscape has evolved significantly since the previous halving events, historical data suggests that the cryptocurrency is not immune to post-halving pullbacks following extended bullish periods. Some analysts argue that the recent introduction of spot ETFs may disrupt Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle, evidenced by its recent all-time highs. However, others contend that the substantial inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs could amplify the deflationary impact of the halving, potentially overshadowing any market disruption.
As the countdown to the next halving continues, market participants remain vigilant, seeking insights from past cycles to navigate potential future scenarios.
Perhaps what is different from all previous halving cycles is the change in the income structure of miners, which is caused by factors such as the future price space of BTC and the current development status of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
JinseFinanceThe Bitcoin halving is expected to occur in less than three days, leading to aggressive short-selling of several listed cryptocurrency mining companies in the U.S. stock market.
SanyaAs the Bitcoin halving event approaches, the 3EX AI trading platform, with its advanced AI technology and user-friendly trading functions, gives every participant the opportunity to capture potential rising opportunities in this cyclical event.
JinseFinanceThe SEC's impending decision on spot bitcoin ETFs brings anticipation and uncertainty to the cryptocurrency market. Market players are closely monitoring developments as the industry stands on the brink of a historic decision.
BerniceFacing the end of a new halving cycle, what should we expect, and what new variables have emerged in the market?
JinseFinanceThe last Bitcoin halving took place on May 11, 2020, and the next bitcoin halving will likely occur in 2024.
CoindeskBitcoin’s hashrate is reaching all-time highs, and it’s causing confusion about “the halvening” on Twitter.
CoindeskThe final countdown for the Ethereum Merge was incorporated by Google in its latest update.
BeincryptoThe date of the merger of Ethereum is basically confirmed, but the ownership of the computing power of more than 800 T in the entire network is still in doubt.
链向资讯In a saturated decentralized exchange market, a good reputation is a little short of gold.
Cointelegraph