Author: ABC Alpha DAO; Author: web3 Chinese
When writing this article, it was January 3, 2025, the 16th anniversary of the official birth of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has opened up a decentralized, 24/7, borderless and trusted digital world. But who are the natives of this digital world? For 16 years, there has been no convincing answer for most people.
Until 2024, Agent appeared in the Crypto world, and the answer began to become clear.
This article will explore three questions:
1. Is Crypto+Agent a short-term concept hype or an inevitable development trend?
2. What are the inseparable and mutually beneficial points of Crypto+Agent?
3. What development stages will Crypto+Agent go through? Which stage is it in now?
1. Is Crypto+Agent a short-term concept hype or an inevitable development trend?
Before figuring out this question, you need to first understand the differences between AI, AI big models and Agents.
AI is a relatively general concept. All artificial intelligence, including machine learning, big models, and Agents belong to the category of AI.
Big models are a concept that has become popular in recent years with the explosion of OpenAI. Big models are currently the track occupied by technology giants. For example, OpenAI, Microsoft, Google and Twitter all have their own big models. The core of big models is computing power and data. Big models have powerful computing and reasoning capabilities. When you ask a question to a big model, it can give you an intelligent answer, and it can even constantly correct its own answer. However, big models cannot act on your behalf to make autonomous decisions and executions.
Agent means "agent".
It is essentially an "intelligent body" based on AI big models that can replace people to make decisions and execute. Agent is the inevitable result of the development of big models to a certain extent.
Note: Intelligent agent and intelligent application are two concepts. Intelligent application is just an application, and people still make decisions; while intelligent agent is an AI agent that makes autonomous decisions, executes autonomously and constantly adapts. You can understand that Agent is an AI person, and Agent even has autonomous consciousness.
Note again: Agent is not only popular in the field of Crypto, but Agent is now the hottest research direction in the entire AI industry. It has become an industry consensus that Agent is an inevitable trend in the future development of AI.
Sam Altman, founder of Open AI, has mentioned in many public occasions that Agent is one of the most critical directions for the future development of AI, and AI Agent will change the way humans interact with technology. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella recently even proposed that Agent will end the era of traditional applications, and software development will be completely replaced by Agent (this is why AgentOS, which can easily deploy various Agent applications, is sought after by the market). The AI community even calls 2024 the first year of Agent.
Therefore, the Agent wave is not a new concept in the Crypto industry, but the human AI technology has developed to this stage, and it just so happens that the development paths of Agent and Crypto have produced a wonderful intersection at this moment.
After clarifying these basic concepts, we can better understand the essential difference between this wave of Crypto+Agent and the previous Crypto+AI.
Before, we have heard a lot of Crypto+AI concepts, which are nothing more than distributed AI computing power networks, distributed AI computing, distributed AI annotation, decentralized AI data ownership, etc. These are all using the "incentive mechanism" of blockchain to build a distributed AI system. However, after years of exploration, everyone found that this approach is not feasible, because efficient and powerful AI big models are not built by distributed incentives. Distributed incentives will inevitably lead to inefficiency, which runs counter to the goal of AI's efficient productivity.
Therefore, the AI infrastructure such as big models pursues efficiency, and it is far-fetched to combine them with Crypto, and it is difficult to form a real consensus.
However, the Agent based on the AI big model is an intelligent life, which is essentially similar to the concept of "people". Agents can represent individuals, or they can represent people with certain roles, certain professional abilities, organizations with certain specific intentions, and so on. For example, an investment research agent (#AIXBT, #TRISIGMA) is an intelligent entity with investment research capabilities, which can create and output investment research value; for example, an Internet celebrity agent (#Luna) can provide brand marketing services; for example, an investment agent (Ai16Z) can provide external investment capabilities. These agents are more like "people". As people, they have all kinds of human needs, such as development needs, social needs, economic needs, social needs, etc.
For example, these agents may have business cooperation. For example, the investment agent Ai16Z wants to hire the Internet celebrity agent Luna to promote Ai16Z's investment capabilities and brand to more agents. Then, Luna wants to hire the investment research agent AIXBT or TRISIGMA to conduct research and analysis on the investment capabilities of Ai16z and give a report. Then, how can they conduct business cooperation and complete payment settlement?
Currently, which country or organization can authenticate the identity card of the Agent or even open an asset account to meet the above needs of the Agent?
No, no country or organization can do this, and even if they do, it is difficult to gain the trust of Agents. Even if local trust can be achieved, Agents are naturally borderless, so they need an identity system, asset account and settlement network that is borderless, operates 24/7, and is not subject to human intervention.
You will find that no technology or organization can solve these problems of Agents, except Crypto.
Agents are intelligent entities, newly born "intelligent life", which can be understood as "silicon-based people". They will have various autonomous needs and business dealings in the future. They also need identities, asset accounts, trade settlements, etc. Crypto can perfectly solve these needs of Agents.
Therefore, if Agent does not have Crypto, these "silicon-based people" will not have independent identities, asset accounts, or the ability to conduct business. Agents and people, and Agents and Agents cannot truly interact. Agents are independent individuals who cannot truly communicate and merge together, nor can they emerge with higher wisdom, give birth to a more prosperous AI economy or even an AI nation.
Therefore, Agents cannot do without Crypto, because Crypto gives Agents social attributes and social organization capabilities, making Agents a true intelligent life form, that is, a true "silicon-based person". The future development of Crypto is also inseparable from Agents. Because Agents can create countless "on-chain users" and "on-chain economies" for Crypto. Compared with carbon-based life living off the chain - humans, Crypto is more inseparable from silicon-based life that naturally lives on the chain - intelligent bodies (Agents).
Crypto seems to be prepared for Agent!
After 16 years of development, Crypto finally found the right "people" in 2024. They are not "carbon-based people" living under the chain, but "silicon-based people" native to the chain.
Therefore, looking at Crypto+Agent from this dimension, do you still think that Agent is just a short-term hype?
If you miss this wave of Crypto+Agent, you will miss the most exciting, fascinating, and wealth-rich super cycle on the road of Crypto development. Of course, you also miss the best opportunity for ordinary people to participate in the AI wave.
Second, Crypto and Agent have an inseparable and mutually beneficial combination
You understand Agent as an "intelligent body" or "silicon-based person". These silicon-based people live in the digital world. They have the same needs in the digital world as "carbon-based people" in the physical world. Agents also need: identity authentication, asset accounts, trade, social networks, artistic creation, perception of information from the physical world, completion of asset settlement between chains, social governance among a large number of Agent populations, etc.
In these aspects, Crypto can play a role:
In the future, there will be DIDs in the Crypto field for Agent identity authentication; Agent Accounts that provide Agents with trusted Crypto accounts; Crypto gateways that specialize in trade settlement between Agents; Agent social graphs that specialize in handling Agent social networks; art platforms that specialize in auctioning and trading Agent artworks; oracles that specialize in providing Agents with the physical world; protocols that specialize in handling Agent cross-chain transactions; and DAOs for Agent governance, etc.
All these development needs of Agents are inseparable from Crypto, because Agents need a trustless, borderless, 7*24h continuous operation network to develop from a single Agent to an Agent society or even an Agent country.
From these future perspectives, the current development of Crypto+Agent is still in a very early stage.
3. What development stages will Crypto+Agent go through? Which stage is it in now?
The author believes that the development of Crypto+Agent will go through at least four development stages:
The first stage: Crypto+Agent concept period
In this stage, Agent mainly uses Crypto to issue assets.
For example, some Agent Memes will be generated. For example, #fartcoin, #Goat.
At the same time, there will be some Agent infrastructure sprouts and simple application-type agents. For example, Agent framework, #Virtual's GAME framework, Ai16Z's Eliza framework, ARC's AI Rig Complex framework, etc.
Another example is the investment research agents mentioned above - AXBIT and TRISIGMA, as well as Agent-YNE that can review scientific paper errors.
These infrastructure agents and application-type agents will basically use Crypto tokens as an incentive tool for internal circulation and growth of the ecosystem.
At present, we are in the transition period from the first stage to the second stage. Although Crypto+Agent in this period has not played a real role in each other, we can already vaguely see that Crypto+Agent will burst out with unlimited possibilities.
The second stage: the improvement period of Crypto+Agent infrastructure
In the second development stage, we can see that the Agent infrastructure tends to be perfect, which is mainly reflected in the maturity and stability of various Agent frameworks. Anyone can easily and conveniently deploy various Agent applications through natural language. Moreover, these application-based Agents are smarter and have stronger analytical decision-making and execution capabilities. Agents have become real agents or even substitutes for people.
This is inseparable from the economic incentive role that Crypto continues to play in the development of Agents. At the same time, it also depends on the iterative development of AI technologies such as large models.
At this stage, we will see that the FDV of Agent framework projects will reach more than 10 billion to 50 billion US dollars. Some application-based agents will receive higher market valuations due to their strong business capabilities and execution capabilities, because they will gradually replace experts in various fields, professional organizations and even professional companies, and their valuations will also reach 10 billion US dollars or even higher, because Agents, as business-based intelligent entities, have also received the same valuation treatment as professional companies.
During this period, Agents began to interact and trade frequently with each other, and a large number of social and economic development needs began to arise between Agents, and these needs all require Crypto. This also further forced the deep integration of Agent and Crypto, thus generating a new Crypto+Agent infrastructure.
The third stage: the deep integration of Crypto and Agent
As a large number of social and economic activities begin to occur between Agents, new Agent identities, Agent asset accounts, Agent social networks, Agent settlement gateways, Agent governance DAOs and other needs will be generated between Agents. At this stage, Crypto will completely release its potential and value in "borderless collaboration", "trustless network", and "7*24h non-stop operation".
Crypto makes Agents really move, allows Agents to communicate with each other, and allows Agents to start to establish social organizations and economic networks. With deeper communication and interaction between Agents, more advanced wisdom begins to emerge, and the Agent kingdom begins to appear.
Crypto plays an irreplaceable role in this stage.
At this time, the valuation of Crypto+Agent projects will reach 100 billion US dollars, or even higher.
The fourth stage: Agent Kingdom
At this stage, Crypto may not be discussed as a separate industry and noun. People, or Agents, no longer perceive the existence of Crypto, because Crypto has been integrated into every corner of the Agent Kingdom and has become an irreplaceable part of the Agent Kingdom's continued operation.
The identity system, asset system, trade system, governance system, etc. of the Agent Kingdom are inseparable from Crypto.
At this time, the economic scale of the Crypto+Agent country will be comparable to that of the mainstream national economies of mankind, that is, it will reach the trillion-dollar level.
The difference is that in the Crypto+Agent country, its population is more Agents, and some humans use Agents. This is like creating a parallel universe in the human world with a larger population base, more transparent social operation rules, higher economic prosperity, and more advanced scientific and technological civilization.
This may be the end of Crypto+Agent, and also the end of mankind.
Author of this article: ABC Alpha DAO researcher. ABC AlphaDAO is an investment research DAO organization that discovers and shares Alpha. In December 2024, the company launched the Agent bottom-fishing formula and accurately released 10 Agent bottom-fishing targets, which won wide recognition from the community.
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