2024 is a milestone year for the crypto industry. From the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs at the beginning of the year, to the booming bull market, to the promotion of the US election, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have reached record valuations and are increasingly affecting the social and political landscape.
For HTX Ventures, this is also a fruitful year. Benefiting from the wave of innovation, we have supported 28 leading projects and funds that explore new frontiers in crypto. These projects cover DeFi, BTCFi, ZK-rollups, modular infrastructure, Layer 1 and Layer 2 solutions, artificial intelligence, SocialFi, GameFi and many other fields.
Looking ahead, HTX Ventures has identified five major tracks that have shown exciting progress in 2024, and we will pay close attention to them in 2025. These tracks include Bitcoin ecology, infrastructure (Infra), Meme, artificial intelligence (AI) and TON ecology. The report provides an in-depth analysis of the current status, challenges and future opportunities of each track, and provides a macroeconomic background and market outlook.
In the past year, Bitcoin's market dominance has increased from 45.27% to 56.81%. This means that most of the current liquidity in the crypto market is mainly concentrated in the Bitcoin ecosystem, and it is still increasing.
Source: CoinStats
Bitcoin spot ETFs have accumulated 5.3% of the total existing Bitcoins, and their holdings have increased from 629,900 at the beginning of the year to 1,243,608, an increase of 613,708. Within 12 months, the proportion of ETF holdings increased from 3.15% to 6.25%. (As of December 4, 2024)
A new market with Bitcoin as the core asset, ETFs and US stocks as channels for capital inflows, and unlimited absorption of US dollar liquidity through US-listed companies represented by MSTR as carriers has officially opened. Therefore, the need for Bitcoin to further develop its ecology and improve the efficiency of capital utilization has become increasingly prominent, which will also be achieved by increasing BTC demand and raising prices.
In the past three years, a total of 77 Bitcoin Layer 2 projects have been launched or completed financing. In the first half of 2024, driven by the Bitcoin ETF concept boom, the transaction volume and token prices of Bitcoin Layer 2 projects in previous cycles (such as Lightning Network, Stacks, and Liquid Network) have risen sharply. These old Layer 2 projects have also witnessed further development of technology. Various Layer 2 solutions have emerged on Bitcoin, including Spiderchain (Botanix), ZKRollup (Nexio and Critea), EVM-compatible chains (BOB and B Squared), side chains (Merlin), etc. As of now, the total locked value (TVL) of Bitcoin Layer 2 has reached US$3 billion, contributed by 19 projects. Assuming all Bitcoin Layer 2 projects are launched in the next few years, the total TVL is expected to grow at least 2-4 times to $6-12 billion.
BRC-20, Ordinals, and Runes are the main new execution standards that will emerge in late 2023. Despite the overall market decline in the second quarter, BTC Layer 1 activity continued to grow steadily. However, although the Bitcoin market recovered in the third quarter, this growth momentum failed to continue.
BTC L1s Dynamics, Source:Cryptokoryo_research
As Bitcoin utilization increases, other infrastructures including interoperability solutions and security layers are beginning to emerge.
Interoperability
Bridges and WBTC are still the mainstream of interoperability solutions on Bitcoin. Since the Bitcoin network does not directly provide composability to build applications, people have to rely on these bridges/WBTC to unlock DeFi benefits on other blockchains. We expect more interoperability solutions, including Xlink, Atomiq, and Auran, to be launched in the coming year.
Security Layer
However, these interoperability solutions may pose a threat to the security of the underlying assets, as hacking incidents occur from time to time. To this end, Bitcoin-related security solutions have begun to emerge.
Babylon is a typical example. It has developed a set of security sharing protocols for Bitcoin, including:
Bitcoin Timestamp: Allows the timestamp of data to be recorded on the Bitcoin network, enhancing the credibility and immutability of the data.
Bitcoin Staking: Through economic incentives, Bitcoin allows Bitcoin to provide security for other networks.
In addition, with the emergence of new technologies, such as the data availability layer (DA layer), the potential use value of Bitcoin is further released. Nubit is a key player in the field of Bitcoin DA. It uses Bitcoin to expand data capacity and support the development of applications, Layer 2 and oracles.
The Taproot upgrade enables the Bitcoin mainnet to issue assets. From the rise of the BRC-20 inscription and Ordinals NFT market in 2023, to the subsequent launch of asset issuance protocols such as ARC-20 and SRC-20, to the emergence of infrastructure such as Bitcoin Layer 2, Bitcoin Restaking and LST, and Bitcoin cross-chain bridges, the entire ecosystem has developed rapidly. Subsequently, after the Bitcoin Conference in July 2024, the market turned its attention to native BTCFi that can achieve decentralized, non-wrapped models, such as stablecoins.
Currently, through the cryptographic techniques of Discreet Log Contracts (DLCs) and Adaptor Signatures, developers can program financial contracts that rely on external events in Bitcoin scripts to ensure the permissionless nature of stablecoins and lending projects during liquidation, and to ensure the permissionless nature of multi-party transaction operations through partially signed Bitcoin transactions (PSBTs). However, this still involves game theory logic to a certain extent, that is, to prevent malicious behavior by the project party by increasing the cost of doing evil, rather than achieving complete decentralization from the smart contract level. Shell Finance, a stablecoin project that is about to go online on the mainnet, adopts this solution.
What can really change the status quo is OP_CAT. As long as OP_CAT can pass, developers can use Bitcoin native high-level programming languages such as sCrypt to achieve fully decentralized and transparent smart contract development on the Bitcoin mainnet. sCrypt is a TypeScript framework for writing smart contracts on Bitcoin, allowing developers to directly use TypeScript, a popular high-level programming language, to write smart contracts. The current Bitcoin Layer 2 can also be converted to ZK Rollup, and the total scale of BTCFi is expected to increase significantly.
With the dual support of the macro market and infrastructure, we believe that Bitcoin will usher in a further surge in market demand in the next two years.
In 2024, infrastructure will remain one of the most attractive tracks in the crypto industry. The combination of capital and technology has promoted the rapid development of projects such as Layer 1, Layer 2 and middleware. The continuous upgrading and construction of the Ethereum ecosystem, as well as the improvement of Layer 2 fees and performance; the rapid development of other high-performance Layer 1s led by Solana; the continuous deepening of the multi-chain pattern; projects represented by EigenLayer improve network security and capital efficiency through the Restaking mechanism; and multiple Bitcoin Layer 2 projects try to combine Bitcoin's security with high-performance expansion solutions. These have promoted the vigorous development of the infrastructure field.
Layer 1 projects continue to optimize their consensus mechanisms and performance, providing a solid foundation for on-chain applications.
Ethereum: Launched EIP-4844, reducing the fees of the Layer 2 network.
Solana and TRON: Thanks to the development of Meme Coin and infrastructure projects such as Pump.fun and SunPump, on-chain transactions are very active.
Aptos and Sui: Applications in the GameFi and DeFi fields drive the growth of active users.
Layer 2 continues to be the key path for scalability, and ZK Rollup and Optimistic Rollup have their own development.
zkSync and StarkNet: Continuous iterative upgrades, ZK Rollup's user experience has been greatly improved.
Base and Arbitrum: DeFi and NFT projects flourish on these platforms, with significant growth in TVL.
Layer 0 and cross-chain middleware have made new breakthroughs in interoperability.
LayerZero: Connecting more than 40 chains, cross-chain transaction volume has increased significantly.
Cosmos: IBC upgrade, cross-chain performance increased by 50%.
Modular public chain provides high performance and flexibility, attracting diverse applications.
Celestia: Supports multiple modular execution layers and becomes a benchmark project for modular public chains.
Monad: Attracts a large number of developers and DApp deployments with ultra-high TPS performance.
Bitcoin Layer 2 has become an emerging hot spot in the primary market this year. Many related projects such as Babylon, Taro, BounceBit, Corn, etc. have completed financing this year, mainly bringing smart contracts and extended functions to the Bitcoin network.
Taro: Expands Bitcoin's payment and contract capabilities through the Lightning Network.
Stacks and RSK: Promote the growth of Bitcoin smart contract applications.
Restaking has improved the efficiency of capital use and has also achieved good development and market attention this year. Projects including EigenLayer and Satori have received tens of millions of investment from top capital this year.
Investment and Financing Events
Infrastructure still occupies an important position in this year's investment and financing. Layer 1, modular public chain, and infrastructure related to the Bitcoin ecosystem have all been favored by capital. Layer 1 currently represents the most concentrated technology development and exploration in the encryption field, and this track will continue to be an area where development resources and capital are concentrated in the future.
In 2024, the Meme track once again became a hot spot in the crypto market. As Eco-bridgehead, it not only promotes community consensus, but also combines with DeFi, GameFi and other fields to create new usage scenarios. For example, Solana has successfully stimulated the activity and vitality of the ecosystem by vigorously promoting the innovation and development of the Meme project. From Bome and Slerf at the beginning of the year to Pump.fun in the middle of the year, these projects have shown strong "lottery attributes" with the Bonding Curve price curve and low market value opening mode, attracting widespread attention. In addition, the decentralized feature of Pump.fun, "everyone can deploy Meme", has promoted greater ecological prosperity. Currently, more than half of Solana Meme projects originate from Pump.fun, and dozens of projects have a market value of more than $1 billion. Public chains such as SUI and TRON have also quickly followed up on the Meme strategy, further activating their respective ecosystems. Pump.fun The Meme project has become an important tool for attracting new crypto users because of its simplicity and low entry threshold. The launch of Moonshot allows users to purchase Meme assets with fiat currency, and the politically related Meme craze after the election provides new players with a strong sense of participation. Looking ahead, the Trump administration's crypto policy and related governing trends will bring potential news impacts to the market, or give rise to new Meme hotspots. For example, if the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) led by Elon Musk gains attention, it may trigger another surge in Dogecoin.
As the crypto market environment becomes more relaxed, more retail investors are expected to enter the market, and the Meme project will become an important channel for capital inflow. The huge increase in Robinhood Exchange after each listing of Meme coins fully illustrates this trend, and it may continue to promote the development of this track in the future.
As market users' demand for fair issuance further increases, the Meme fair launch track has achieved extremely high market attention and participation this year. Infrastructure projects such as Pump.fun and SunPump have become the top cash flow projects this year, injecting new impetus into the development of Meme.
Pump.fun
Pump.fun is a Meme project issuance platform built on Solana. By providing simple and intuitive creation tools and strong community support, adopting a fair issuance distribution model, and designing a mechanism for automatically adding liquidity to DEX, coupled with Solana's own successful market operations, community operations and low transaction costs, Pump.fun has been recognized by the market as soon as it came out, and has successfully incubated many well-known Meme projects. As of November 2024, more than 40,000 projects have been successfully issued to Raydium, with cumulative project revenue exceeding 1.17 million SOL, equivalent to approximately US$200 million.
At the same time, the success of Pump.fun has attracted imitations from many other projects, and Pump imitations have appeared on multiple chains, among which SunPump is the most popular. Overall, this round of market-driven Meme craze is inseparable from the innovation and development of infrastructure tools. Pump and other tools were the first to introduce automatic liquidity addition into the issuance platform. At the same time, they pursued fairness, low cost and high efficiency in the issuance cost and method, effectively reducing the issuance cost and threshold, enhancing the confidence and participation of the market and community, and making the Meme project continue to be popular this year.
Pump.fun's success has not been perfectly replicated on other chains. The main reasons include:
Solana has become one of the ideal issuance platforms for Meme projects with its low transaction costs and high throughput.
The Solana community has shown great enthusiasm for new projects, promoting the rapid growth of start-up Meme projects.
Other ecosystems such as Ethereum face high gas fee problems, and Meme projects on other high-performance chains such as BSC and Avalanche also perform relatively flat, mainly due to their low community size and user stickiness.
Issuance platforms such as Pump.fun and SunPump have become important infrastructure for the development of the Meme project. In the future, the Meme project may show a more diversified and practical trend, and the infrastructure may add product functions that combine with other application scenarios such as games, NFTs, and social networking. With the gradual improvement of the multi-chain ecosystem and the enrichment of actual usage scenarios, the Meme infrastructure will continue to inject more vitality into the entire track.
In 2024, the Crypto+AI track has been exploring feasible directions, and dozens of AI sub-tracks have emerged, including ZK/OPML to help AI on the chain, AI data crowdsourcing, decentralized computing power leasing, AI data trading, AI games, and AI agents.
This year, a large number of blockchain infrastructures and applications have expanded their focus on AI. Centralization of resources and ownership is one of the key challenges to long-term scaling of AI infrastructure, and the decentralized nature of blockchain networks provides a viable solution to the centralization problem of AI. One of the main examples of traditional crypto projects turning to AI is Near. Since this year, it has encouraged AI to run on an open source protocol on the chain.
Currently, the limitation of data resources is one of the main challenges to scaling AI development. Most of the useful data for AI models is monopolized by large technology companies. Due to the limited jurisdiction of these companies, language and cultural coverage is inefficient. Existing centralized AI data annotation companies are unable to fully expand data sets due to insufficient financial incentives and jurisdictional restrictions on operations.
Blockchain technology can well solve these problems. Multiple projects are being launched, such as Kiva, Sapien, Bagel, etc., aiming to improve data provenance and incentivize more efficient data annotation tasks across jurisdictions.
Currently, people mainly use centralized service providers like Hugging Face to run inference on open source models, which may raise privacy or censorship issues. Decentralized inference allows users to run machine learning models without relying on centralized services while ensuring the trustworthiness of model outputs. Three major areas of verifiable inference have emerged, each with different cost and security trade-offs.
ZKML
Provides private inference for AI models using zk-SNARKs technology. Giza, Modulus Labs, and EZKL are major players in this field. These technologies enhance the security and accuracy of the open source model inference process. However, due to the high cost of generating zk proofs, the cost of inference will increase significantly, resulting in at least a 100-fold increase in time cost and latency compared to centralized inference. Therefore, current products still need to further improve on zk technology before they can be widely used in the future.
OPML
Assume that the inference result is accurate unless it is proven wrong by a challenger in the network. As an observer of on-chain inference, the network challenger runs his own model to ensure the accuracy of the output. The main example of OPML is ORA. Although the cost performance is better than ZKML, it is still much more expensive than centralized inference due to the cost that needs to be paid to the observer.
On-chain decentralized inference network
With a decentralized inference network, queries are run by a small number of nodes on the chain. If there is a discrepancy, the abnormal node will be punished. This is the lowest cost and fastest of all solutions, but security cannot be guaranteed because there is a possibility of cheating by the node. To ensure higher security, more nodes may need to be deployed, but this will increase costs. Ritual is an example of running a decentralized inference network.
Due to its low cost efficiency compared to local inference, decentralized AI inference is not currently the first choice for users. Under the current state of AI development, output verification is not a major concern for AI developers and users. In addition, edge computing can also be used as another privacy and security solution for running AI models. Therefore, decentralized inference may face growth bottlenecks in the long run.
GPU is in high demand in AI development, and the current GPU providers are mainly monopolized by a few large companies in the market, which may bring price risks if extreme market conditions occur. The old decentralized GPU protocol Render has increased 10 times in price since 2023. This year, a large number of decentralized GPU networks have been launched on the market, such as IO.net, Grass, Akash, etc. These networks incentivize GPU contributions through tokens, and the target audience includes consumers and smaller GPU companies.
However, due to the lack of uniformity of GPU resources on these networks and the fact that most high-performance GPUs are not owned by individual consumers, it is expected that centralized GPU providers will remain the main choice for AI developers.
AI agents are deployed on the blockchain, using token mechanisms to incentivize and guide specific behaviors of agents, including interacting with smart contracts, transactions, and queries on behalf of users. Myshell is an example. In the future, AI agents will gradually become the stewards and assistants of users, providing users with more comprehensive service execution capabilities - such as autonomously issuing assets, initiating viral communications, forming decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), and even being responsible for the operation and investment decisions of funds, forming their own unique culture and beliefs. This deep integration of AI and cryptography is something that Web2 cannot achieve, and it is also a new form that Web3 cannot accomplish independently with cryptography alone.
At present, all of this has not been productized. Recently, in order to solve the problem that AI agents need independent financial identities and can freely control wallets, Coinbase launched an AI wallet based on the Coinbase MPC wallet, allowing AI agents to easily use wallets to handle various transactions. To make AI wallets easier to understand, Coinbase also provides Based Agent templates for direct zero-code deployment. It is expected that more productized applications will appear in 2025.
Based Agent Analysis, Source: https://x.com/starzqeth/status/1853597036421259728
In addition, AI agent networks are also beginning to emerge. Theoriq is a key example. It implements efficient multi-agent operations on the blockchain through a community-governed AI agent market, provides an efficient distribution channel for AI agent creators, and simplifies the process for AI agent users to perform multiple tasks.
TON (The Open Network) ecosystem relies on Telegram's hundreds of millions of users and strong technical support to gradually build a multi-level blockchain ecosystem, and achieve a comprehensive outbreak of the ecosystem and market in 2024. From DeFi to Meme, to NFT and games, TON has made remarkable achievements in multiple fields by leveraging its broad user base, and pioneered the realization of traffic monetization through encryption for Web2 social applications.
TON data overview, Source: https://defillama.com/chain/TON
Since the traditional business model is difficult to bring considerable profits to Telegram, TON began to explore zero-threshold or lightly paid click-based games, superimposed with the expectation of token airdrops, and successfully attracted a large number of Web2 users to participate.
In May 2024, the first project Notcoin was launched. Notcoin is a social click game that can be accessed through Telegram. Players interact with the Notcoin robot and invite friends to start the game. The game mechanism is simple: a gold coin will appear on the screen, and each click will get the game's virtual currency Notcoin. The player's click ability is limited by the energy bar, which will be depleted as the clicks are made, but will be gradually replenished over time.
Notcoin was widely welcomed by the market after its launch. Relying on simple game mechanisms and Telegram's huge user base, it achieved millions of monthly active users in a short period of time and was listed on major exchanges. The success of Notcoin marks the successful implementation of the TON ecological game model, and also marks that the game track has entered a new level of user drainage.
After Notcoin, Catizen encouraged users to start the experience with small payments such as $0.99 and $4.99 by optimizing the game experience, such as acceleration and other functions. Users can deposit funds through OTC fiat currency and directly use credit cards to purchase encrypted assets, which greatly reduces the threshold for participation. This zero-threshold or light-payment model further expands the user base.
In the TON ecosystem, Dogs is one of the most popular Meme projects. Through unique community governance and ecological construction, Dogs quickly occupied a place in the market. The project verifies Telegram accounts and invitation mechanisms to achieve simple mining operations. After going online, Dogs attracted a large number of communities and traffic, and also achieved multiple exchanges in a short period of time.
In addition to games and social projects, DeFi is also booming in the TON ecosystem. Projects such as TonStaker and Ston.fi have made good progress. Through traffic star projects such as Notcoin, Dogs, and Catizen, TON has not only consolidated its position in the field of social payments, but also made breakthroughs in multiple tracks such as DeFi.
However, click-based mini-games are essentially still a model of importing Web2 users with the expectation of token airdrops and then selling them to exchanges. After the initial heat passed, there was a serious decline in traffic. At present, the TON ecosystem urgently needs to find a new business model that can improve user retention in 2025 and find the next growth curve. It may be DeFi or Meme, but it must not be a model that has been implemented on Ethereum or Solana. The success of TON has also inspired other Web2 social applications. For example, Line, which focuses on the Japanese, Korean and Southeast Asian markets, launched the Kaia chain and began to try the Mini DApp model to monetize existing Web2 traffic. This shows that TON's model is having a profound impact on the entire industry.
Line Web3 Platform Breakdown,
Source: https://govforum.kaia.io/t/gp-4-budget-request-for-kaia-wave/963
In the capital market, compared with other high-performance public chains, the TON ecosystem has attracted more capital attention. Many projects have received investment support from the primary market this year. The TON ecosystem will continue to make efforts in user experience, ecological diversity and technological innovation, injecting new impetus into the sustainable development of the crypto market.
2024 is the year of take-off for the TON ecosystem, but facing the future, TON needs to innovate business models, improve user retention, and find new growth curves. Only in this way can we stay ahead in the fierce blockchain competition and bring continuous value to users and investors.
The main theme of the crypto market in 2024 kicked off with the passage of the Bitcoin ETF in January, and will be further clarified after Trump's victory in November. From a macro perspective, the crypto market is currently in a transitional stage from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE), and QE is expected to start in the second quarter of next year. Historical experience shows that the peak of the crypto bull market usually does not appear in the interest rate cut cycle, but is more likely to occur at the end of the interest rate cut cycle or when the interest rate hike cycle is nearing the end or even just starting. For example, the extremely loose policy caused by the epidemic in 2020 opened the crypto bull market. As the Federal Reserve gradually released signals of tightening policies, the market peaked at the end of 2021, and then the interest rate hike officially began in 2022.
Therefore, the current market is still far from the peak of the bull market. Overall, this bull market may have multiple development paths, especially against the backdrop of Trump's fiscal expansion policy and unprecedented crypto-friendly signals, a strong bull market is expected. In addition, with the relaxation of regulations and the entry of traditional financial institutions, Bitcoin will gain more solid support and gradually become a core dollar asset in addition to the dollar industry cycle (such as AI). The decoupling trend of Bitcoin from the traditional digital currency market (Altcoins) is expected to strengthen further.
On the other hand, the benchmark interest rate is expected to fall to a neutral level by mid-2025. Whether there will be further rate cuts or tightening signals will depend on the inflation level at that time and whether Trump can successfully influence the Fed. If the Fed sends a tightening signal to deal with inflation, the market may enter a period of adjustment until Trump has the opportunity to control Fed policy in May 2026.
The repeal of SAB 121 clears the way for traditional financial institutions to enter the market
Trump is expected to repeal SAB 121 after taking office on January 20 next year. This move will allow traditional financial institutions to hold cryptocurrencies on their balance sheets, further promoting the institutionalization of crypto assets. This not only provides more financing options for crypto assets, but also makes spot cryptocurrencies more accessible through existing institutional trading platforms and partnerships, and overall improves the maturity of the institutional crypto market.
SAB 121 (Staff Accounting Bulletin 121) is a guidance issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in 2022. Under the regulation, banks, exchanges or other financial institutions that hold or custody crypto assets must treat these crypto assets as liabilities and disclose them in their balance sheets. Even if these institutions only hold clients’ crypto assets for safekeeping, they must bear potential liability.
This regulation requires financial institutions to make adjustments in two aspects:
Detailed disclosure of risks: They must disclose in detail the potential risks associated with crypto assets, including market volatility, hacker attacks, technical failures, etc.
Accounting treatment adjustments: Crypto assets need to be treated as liabilities rather than just as client assets for custody. This may increase the total liabilities of banks and financial institutions and affect their capital adequacy ratios.
Due to these restrictions, SAB 121 directly hinders traditional U.S. financial institutions, especially national banks such as Citibank and JPMorgan Chase, from providing cryptocurrency custody services, and also limits crypto companies’ opportunities to obtain banking services.
However, as the attitude of regulators becomes clear and policies are relaxed, traditional financial services companies and investors will be able to operate on the blockchain for the first time, bringing new benefits and strategic opportunities.
Coingecko, dated Dec 4th
PayFi: Direct linking of fiat currency to crypto activities will create unlimited possibilities
As traditional financial institutions are allowed to legally invest, hold and custody crypto assets, PayFi, compliant stablecoins, compliant fiat currency deposits and withdrawals and other tracks are expected to rise rapidly. Recently, Tether announced the launch of a new physical asset (RWA) platform, which focuses on tokenizing real-world financial assets (such as government bonds, real estate and other fixed-income assets) to provide a digital form of investment.
Moonshot has created a new use case by connecting fiat currency deposits and withdrawals with Meme transactions. In the future, more projects may emerge by connecting fiat currency channels, linking real assets and high-frequency crypto gameplay (such as GameFi, DeFi).
As the regulatory environment becomes more open and transparent in 2024, the crypto industry is entering a new era. As a long-term investor since 2018, HTX Ventures is committed to using our expertise and insights to expand the industry's availability and customer base by identifying and supporting the best and most cutting-edge technological innovation projects.
We are excited for 2025 and look forward to continuing this journey with our partners, investors, and the entire crypto community. Let us build a more innovative and accessible crypto ecosystem together.
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