Former President Donald Trump now has a 52% chance of winning the 2024 presidential election according to Polymarket. This contrasts with Vice President Kamala Harris, who holds a 47% chance. Harris previously led the predictions after Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race, but Trump’s recent rise has shifted the dynamics.
There are claims that Kamala Harris might support a controversial 25% tax on unrealised gains. While unconfirmed, these claims have sparked criticism, with figures like Charles Hoskinson, co-founder of Cardano, denouncing it as "unconstitutional theft."
Polymarket, the platform where these predictions are made, prohibits U.S. residents from participating, raising concerns about its reliability due to the lack of direct input from actual voters.
Kamala Harris faces accusations of manipulating polling data and photoshopping crowd sizes at her rallies. Senator J.D. Vance has criticised the media for allegedly using fake polls to undermine Republican voter turnout and create discord. Vance claims that despite some polls showing Harris with a slight lead, internal campaign data suggests otherwise.
Fox News highlighted a discrepancy between public polls and internal data. While some recent polls suggest Harris is gaining momentum, Vance disputes their accuracy, citing past errors from pollsters like ABC-Washington Post.
Elon Musk has criticised mainstream media polls, suggesting they misrepresent the contest between Trump and Harris. In a poll on X (formerly Twitter), Trump leads with 77% compared to Harris's 23%. Over two million votes have been cast in this poll.
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