Author: 0xWendy Source: X, @0xWendy99
This upcoming bull market is very different from the previous one. The public chain infrastructure is greatly improved and even redundant, and the variety of entrepreneurial projects is dazzling. Let’s dive in from chains and trends:
1. Chains
1. BTC: Renaissance of Ordinals, superimposed with multiple macro benefits
Bitcoin is the king of all chains, and Ordinals undoubtedly supports Relying on the sexiest narrative, although 99% of inscriptions will return to zero next year (maybe even a few months later), the huge gains in US mining stocks such as $MARA have even attracted the attention of traditional financial markets. It is half expected that the inscription handling fee is an important factor driving the increase.
I have also mentioned in previous tweets that it is difficult to sustain a simple meme.With the support of centralized exchanges such as Binance and VC , this segmented track will be more dominated by projects,such as launchpad ($auction, $turt, $bake, etc.), defi (staking Babylon, various swaps), bridge ($mubi, etc.), L2 (Stacks) etc.
Another interesting trend is that for this carnival dominated by the East, the West has gradually participated in the carnival dominated by the East.Asian Chinese-dominated From Unisat and OKX to CBRC’s European and American development team and Layer 1 Foundation, the follow-up development is worth looking forward to.
I wrote an essay discussing the value of Bitcoin a few days ago. Details can be found on the IOSG Ventures official account. The main argument is that the halving ETF will cut interest rates. Against this background, the narrative object of Bitcoin's value storage has gradually become a mainstream institution. In the context of high Bitcoin prices and digital gold, retail investors' participation and narrative will choose the Bitcoin ecosystem.
2. Ethereum: too big to fail, taking a back seat for L2
Although there has been some fud about Ethereum recently, there is no doubt about Ethereum’s status and contribution to the entire encryption field. The most anticipated Ethereum narrative in 2024 is undoubtedly the Cancun upgrade. The introduction of Sharding and Blob will significantly reduce the cost of L2. The Ethereum main chain will retreat behind the scenes more as a consensus layer and data availability layer, providing support for numerous Layer 2 networks. Providing underlying support, Eigenlayer’s re-staking will also be launched on the mainnet next year.
But in the short term, rollup still accounts for a relatively small amount. The high gas is too unfriendly for small-capital retail investors to play, and it is also very difficult when many L2s are competing for success. It is difficult to create a new narrative,so I personally will focus more on L2.
3. Solana: Western institutions like it, Depin’s first chain
From the previous downtime chain to breaking away from the shadow of FTX, Sol is undoubtedly the favorite of Western institutions, and its ability to win people over is undeniable. $PYTH and $JTO triggered an airdrop boom, and NFTs such as Mads also performed well. As a high-performance public chain, SOL is closely tied to the Depin narrative of Western institutions. Although many people have been debating the value of Depin recently, old wine is put in new bottles, but it does not hinder the construction of stud by multiple forces (Multicoin and other leading institutions). Narrative, SOL official support) makes depin one of the main narrative lines that can carry the bubble in the next round of bull market.
Depin’s valuation and imagination will be opened up, $honey, the alien drawing map for you, US mobile $mobile, rendering giant $rndr, the shell CDN business Grass, and the sexiest AI system Akash, Gensyn, ionet, etc. are all ready to go.
4 . Base: Backed by a good father, the application layer is constantly ingenuity
The reason why Base is placed in such a front position is not only because Its TVL currently ranks at the top of L2, which is also my personal view on L2 development: application-driven is the correct strategy.
base's ecological foundation is investing in incubation I have really put some effort into it, and I can feel that it does have its own logic and taste. If you look at the projects supported by base, you will find that they are not dominated by technology and high performance, but have cleverly used the decentralization of the blockchain and the low gas characteristics of L2 to make many interesting attempts. strong>From the popular Friendtech invested by Paradigm, to the small spinach game ethxy invested and incubated by a16z, to the spinach battle game play arena invested by 1kx, and Paragraph, which can compete with leading creator platform products such as Mirror, they are all It is a very outstanding application. Although the team emphasizes the decentralization of the Base chain and the separation of business from Coinbase, there are some things that everyone does not understand.
As the only compliant exchange in the beautiful country, it goes without saying that CB has good connections, capabilities and status, and the investors behind many of the platform’s applications are also top investors. flow, so the development of base next year is also worthy of attention.
5. Blast: L2 Pinduoduo, simple, crude, effective and rich
Although Blast is like the second pool of Blur, I personally still hold a positive attitude. It is operated by top institutions and founders. Although it is jokingly called a Lido dealer, it has a huge TVL It provides a good foundation for subsequent development. In the previous analysis of Blast, I focused on its large airdrop to encourage development (50%). Under the heavy reward, there must be brave men, and everyone will not worry that there will be no local dogs to rush for. . Moreover, Tieshun explained that Blast will be used to build a better NFT ecosystem and may migrate Blur, so you can also expect the emergence of NFT and NFTFi on Blast.
6. There are also some interesting infrastructures
I will not go into details here: Neon, Nomad, etc. of parallel EVM, Metis, a local hot spot in V God's narrative, ZkFair, whose team has rich experience and is good at playing, Sei/Sui, which investors are expected to pull in the future, and those who are good at cx and focus on liquidity Bera, Manta, which is also a lido dealer, Mantle of Defi building blocks, and the technology flow zk system zksync/Scroll, etc. This round of bull market will force many L2s to hurry up and issue coins, but issuing coins is also a delaying measure. If there is no ecology and applications, It can only become an empty city in decline.
7. Among several game public chains, Ronin is my favorite one
Axie, the king of the last bull market, suffered a huge amount of money being stolen from the cross-chain bridge and fell to the altar. However, the team is very resilient. Not only does it have a rich health bar, but it continues to build. Recently, the young Pixels have achieved quite good results, RON The currency price performance is also worthy of praise.
2. Trend
If we break away from the perspective of the chain and summarize several trends in the bull market, we can find:
1. New asset issuance methods are low-cost and high Odds bring about a speculative frenzy
Ordi has been talked about by too many people. Let’s talk about something similar in nature. Probabilities such as Zero and foaminscribe on solana (Spinach ) On-chain lottery and scratch-off lottery at a very low cost attracted many gamblers to use bots to rush. Speculation is an important driving force for the development of the industry, and the dopamine pleasure brought by high odds is synonymous with the bull market. Therefore, when designing the operation gameplay, the project team There should be more thought about this kind of gameplay.
2. Meme is the pearl of the crypto bull market
From Pepe in the first half of this year to Harry Potter, from silly dragons to second-hand Hondas, phenomenal memes are born every once in a while. A deep understanding of Meme culture is very important and necessary Yes, the encryption spirit was born from the rebellion against tradition, and teasing rebellious niche geeks is a kind of cyber aesthetics. Meme is not a natural product of ownerlessness. On the contrary, it is the fusion of financial manipulation and community sentiment behind the right time, place and people. It is the overflow of market liquidity and sentiment, and the huge myth of wealth creation is also an attraction. One of the important means for outside capital and attention to enter cryptocurrency. The rationale for playing memes is to play narratives that impress people first. More importantly than this, keep your IQ50 while playing.
3. Defi is behind the application, but Defi may not be a good application for this bull market
Gamefi and socialfi are actually shell defi, but I personally think that defi will not replicate the glory of the last bull market. Buterin’s new article also opposes excessive financialization of applications. The threshold for defi nesting dolls is high and the interest is low, so it may not be a good choice for mass adoption.
4. Applications drive the development of supporting solutions, making a fortune in silence
The rise of the application layer makes Privy and more With the development of AA MPC wallet solutions, etc., the wallet market structure will also change drastically. The full-chain game engines *Mud and Dojo behind the Gamefi track also fall into this category. Users may not have a particularly deep impression or understanding of them. Compared with Unity and Unreal, the related infrastructure of gamefi/AW also has a lot of room for imagination.
5. The budding mobile terminal
Although it is still very In the early days, judging from the fact that OKX invested heavily in mobile wallets and achieved certain success, taking Stud out of pockets is what users urgently need. Although competition between the on-chain and mobile terminals is fierce, it is undoubtedly a huge cake, and it is still unclear who will win.
Finally, to briefly summarize, the ecology of this bull market can be said to be full of flowers. There are many things worth playing and looking forward to, and there are many attempts to develop the industry.
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