With just two days until the fourth Bitcoin (BTC) halving, scheduled for block height 840,000 on April 19, the cryptocurrency community is anticipating significant changes. This event will halve mining rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block, marking a pivotal moment for the digital currency.
Historically, each halving has resulted in a notable increase in Bitcoin's price due to reduced supply and increased scarcity. The most recent halving in 2020 saw Bitcoin's value surge from $8,600 to an all-time high of $68,000 by November 2021. However, these price surges are influenced not only by halvings but also by macroeconomic events.
BTC Prices.Source:Techopedia
The approval of Bitcoin-only spot ETFs by the U.S. SEC in January 2024, followed by the approval of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong on April 15, 2024, coincides with the halving event. These developments enhance Bitcoin's legitimacy and market price, positioning both the U.S. and Hong Kong as leaders in Bitcoin's integration into financial markets.
The halving affects ETFs differently based on their structure and assets. Spot ETFs, holding Bitcoin directly, may benefit from increased scarcity and value appreciation. Conversely, Futures ETFs, dealing in Bitcoin futures contracts, may experience indirect effects from changes in market sentiment and price trends.
The halving directly impacts Bitcoin miners by reducing rewards, raising concerns about profitability and network decentralization. However, new revenue streams from transaction fees and Layer 2 projects have emerged, altering the network's economic landscape.
Institutional adoption and ETF inflows may mitigate selling pressure from new mining outputs, potentially stabilizing or increasing Bitcoin's price post-halving. The interplay between reduced supply and sustained demand could lead to a more favorable price equilibrium.
Perhaps what is different from all previous halving cycles is the change in the income structure of miners, which is caused by factors such as the future price space of BTC and the current development status of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
JinseFinanceIn the digital asset space, the most important event is undoubtedly the Bitcoin halving in April this year.
JinseFinanceWill there be a sharp drop before and after this halving (guess a 40% retracement would be considered a sharp drop?). In fact, simple on-site speculation may not be enough to produce such a large amplitude, while external black swan events are something you can only encounter by chance.
JinseFinanceTaking into account the historical performance patterns before and after the Bitcoin halving and the current better environment, the price of Bitcoin is expected to hit US$60,000 before the halving in 2024, with the full-year range fluctuating between US$32,000 and US$85,000.
JinseFinanceThe event will double the bitcoin production cost to around $40,000, creating a positive psychological effect, the report said.
CoindeskThe last Bitcoin halving took place on May 11, 2020, and the next bitcoin halving will likely occur in 2024.
CoindeskBitcoin’s hashrate is reaching all-time highs, and it’s causing confusion about “the halvening” on Twitter.
CoindeskHash rate on the bitcoin network has hit a new all-time high of 281.79 million TH/s, and its next halving dates is projected to be as early as Q4 2023.
BeincryptoTraders still anticipate BTC prices above $100,000, but a closer look at the BTC halving cycle chart suggests that a sharper downside move will occur first.
CointelegraphThe $50,000 resistance level seems to be the line in the sand that separates certainty from doubt that Bitcoin has cast off the four-year cycle trend, according to Santiment.
Cointelegraph