Source: Uncertain Thinking
I just talked to a friend on the phone, and the core topic was whether Ethereum is still okay.
My conclusion is: Yes, to summarize, the industry has a promising future, and it will take time to explode.
Simply record the logic I said:
Is L2 a failure or correct? I think it is correct:
From the public chain narrative, there are almost no new L1 releases in this cycle
Ethereum's modular L2 direction almost prevents the emergence of new public chains
Large companies (such as Sony) almost all launch chains based on the L2 of Ethereum's ecological infrastructure
There are few old and new public chains left, and only Solana can compete
The problem becomes that L2 has divided liquidity and reduced Ethereum's ability to capture value. My conclusion is that this is only a temporary appearance:
This problem only occurs when there is insufficient liquidity in the market
There are a large number of similar projects in ICO in 2017, and finally there are only a few at the top of each track
A large number of projects in liquidity mining in 2021 have exploded, and finally there are only a few left in each sub-track
The current L2 contention will also be a process of first explosion and then convergence, and liquidity will only be concentrated in a few chains
At the same time, Ethereum will eventually solve the problem of interoperability (op stack currently also has an interoperability solution)
The butterfly effect of reduced fees has not yet appeared, but it will eventually lead to the outbreak of large-scale applications:
Previously, the transaction fees on the chain were expensive and the threshold for wallets was high. Only a sufficient money-making effect could attract some users to the chain.
Currently, Ethereum's transaction fees have been greatly reduced, and the on-chain U transfer is even an order of magnitude lower than that of TRON.
The transaction fees on L2 are even lower, which will promote the emergence of many new application forms. The product subsidy of 10U is enough for users to operate 10,000 times.
In addition, with the large-scale application of abstract accounts, especially after the recovery of social networks (exchanges have been popularized), users do not need to worry about account security and thresholds at all.
With easy-to-use infrastructure and transaction fees that do not require users to pay, many traditional web2s will seek opportunities on it, and new forms will emerge.
In addition, there is an unavoidable competition issue between BTCFi and Solana:
First of all, I personally think that BTCFi will still be based on Ethereum on a large scale in the future, which in itself strengthens the narrative of Ethereum's public chain
Like the development of the application market, it is impossible for Apple to be the only one, so how much market share will Apple and Android occupy in the future? This requires personal judgment
If Solana does nothing but take Solana, this is still a matter of personal confidence. Who can hold Solana for 5 years without moving?
Questions about the future of the crypto industry:
Gambling and gray industry are the basics. First of all, the basics will always be there. Cryptocurrency cannot die.
From the trend point of view, traditional finance has already penetrated the on-chain business, and large companies are also making their own products.
The future cycle may be different from the previous one. In the past, faB was too easy to make money. Who would make products?
This cycle may be a turning point, making people realize that direct faB is not enough. More and more people will be willing to make underlying products that make money.
Before openai3.5 came out, NVIDIA's infrastructure was already very good. WeChat came out a few years after iPhone4. All of these require time accumulation and trial and error.
If you have to add a time, I personally think that there will be an explosive period in 5-10 years.
JinseFinance
Beincrypto
fx168news
cryptopotato
Coindesk