JPMorgan: Bitcoin Rally Pre-Halving Already Factored In

Bitcoin Rally Before Halving: JPMorgan's Perspective

JPMorgan, a banking giant, suggests that the anticipated price surge preceding the upcoming Bitcoin halving, set for April 2024, has already transpired. Analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, observe that the current BTC price trend, ranging between $50,000-52,000, encompasses the pre-halving impact.

Limited Upside Potential

According to JPMorgan, Bitcoin's value might reach a peak between $54,000-58,000 before the halving in April 2024. This sentiment aligns with Michaël van de Poppe, CEO & Founder of MN Trading Consultancy, who predicts a similar range for Bitcoin's top. Van de Poppe emphasizes the likelihood of altcoins surging before a significant correction.

Dampening Expectations

This prediction tempers expectations, focusing on the ongoing trend rather than speculative surges. Recent market activity shows Bitcoin struggling to maintain a value above $51,000, potentially indicating a reversal in its recent upward trajectory.

Flow of Bitcoin and Institutional Investors

JPMorgan analysts note a significant increase in Bitcoin flow from smaller wallets associated with retail traders compared to institutional investors. This observation considers the influx of new Bitcoin ETFs traded on exchanges.

Upcoming Catalysts in Crypto Space

JPMorgan strategists anticipate key events in the cryptocurrency realm, including the Bitcoin halving, the next Ethereum network upgrade, and the potential approval of Ethereum spot ETFs by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in May. They believe the first two catalysts are already priced in, while the likelihood of SEC approval for spot ETFs stands at 50%.

Concerns Over Tether

JPMorgan voices concerns about Tether (USDT) and its expanding market share among stablecoins. While acknowledging its dominance, JPMorgan highlights regulatory compliance and transparency issues. The analysts suggest that stablecoin issuers adhering to regulations may gain market share amidst anticipated regulatory scrutiny.

Potential Regulatory Oversight

Stablecoins could face increased regulatory oversight soon, with issuers like USDC (backed by Coinbase) and PYUSD (backed by PayPal) potentially benefiting from compliance with existing regulations, according to JPMorgan.

JPMorgan's assessment provides a nuanced outlook on Bitcoin's price trajectory, highlighting the significance of ongoing trends and regulatory factors in the cryptocurrency market.