Keytom Neobank executive: Can investors face the bull market correctly?

Author: Keytom Neobank Investment Advisor Evgeny Filichkin, Cryptoslate; Compiled by: Five Baht, Golden Finance

When Bitcoin breaks through the $69,000 level and sets a new all-time high, it enters the so-called "Excitement Zone" —A phase in the market cycle characterized by extreme investor optimism and speculative frenzy.

With the upcoming April halving, all the hype surrounding it will only fuel the boom further. This sentiment causes Bitcoin prices to rise as more investors flood the market, reinforcing the cycle of optimism and rising prices.

But what can we expect to happen when this event hits the market? Historically, halvings have had a serious impact on investor behavioral patterns, and this year we have been ahead of the curve. So, in the current rising market, how should investors adjust their strategies? Let's take a closer look.

2020 and 2024 Halvings: How has the market background for Bitcoin changed?

This halving will be the fourth halving in the history of BTC. Bitcoin has made great strides towards mainstream adoption since the last event in 2020, highlighted by significant improvements in regulatory frameworks and technical infrastructure.

In recent events, the introduction of Bitcoin ETF has also greatly boosted the positive sentiment of investors. To new heights. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s approval marks a major milestone in Bitcoin’s acceptance as a legal investment asset. In addition, ETFs also broaden access to BTC to a new group of investors, including financial advisors and capital markets allocators. This wider access will attract significant capital inflows.

As Bitcoin continues to gain popularity among institutional investors and retail traders, expectations for the Bitcoin halving event in 2024 are also growing, with people expecting Bitcoin will have a potential impact on market dynamics.

How does the timing of all-time highs affect investors’ stance?

Historically, Bitcoin has experienced significant price volatility following halving events, as the reduction in block rewards results in less supply of new Bitcoin entering the market. As demand increases and supply is limited, Bitcoin's appeal is amplified, further driving investment interest.

However, the situation ahead of the 2024 halving is already different, with Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of $73,000 before the halving event. This departure from past patterns suggests that market sentiment is getting ahead of historical patterns, and the dynamics after April’s halving may be significantly different from what preceded it.

In the context of this year’s Bitcoin halving, the old trading adage “buy the rumor, sell the news” may Proven to be suitable. Fueled by anticipation of the event, investors are actively accumulating Bitcoin, thus "buying the rumor" ". However, once the event has passed, they may take profits rather than push prices higher and thus "sell the news."

Given that market dynamics are happening faster this year than in previous cycles, Once the halving event passes, Bitcoin prices may no longer rally around the news. If investors choose to take profits, this will reflect the market's ability to price future events and adjust accordingly, resulting in a period of price correction and readjustment.

Be careful about succumbing to the excitement zone

Investors need to exercise caution and Maintain a balanced approach to Bitcoin investing, especially during the excitement we are seeing now. While it's natural to get excited about the potential for huge returns, the excitement zone is also characterized by heightened volatility. Many investors may be ignoring the fundamental factors driving Bitcoin's value and focusing only on short-term price increases, which can lead to unsustainable market dynamics.

At the same time, price corrections are a natural and necessary part of any asset's upward trajectory for a number of reasons. Rapid and sustained price increases can lead to overvaluation, where an asset's price exceeds its intrinsic value. This can create a speculative bubble fueled by investor enthusiasm more than anything else. Price adjustments help eliminate such bubbles, returning asset prices to their true values ​​and restoring market equilibrium.

As for when this correction will occur, it is difficult to determine. Traders should remember that markets generally do not have fixed peaks or troughs. Just because an asset's price has reached a high doesn't necessarily mean it has to fall again. vice versa. This highlights the unpredictability of the market and the need for caution in trading decisions.

As investors navigate the opportunities and uncertainties presented by the 2024 halving, a proper understanding of market dynamics and risk management strategies are critical to maximizing potential returns. If you are planning to invest in Bitcoin, make sure you do so for the right reasons after properly considering its long-term viability and the risk factors involved.