Logical analysis of the inscription market and future prospects

Author: 0xDoreen Source: X, @0xDoreen

Looking back on the inscription wave from October to November 2023, the smart big cutters used simple methods and the lowest development costs to accomplish many things that many project parties spent a lot of money but failed to achieve.

The inscription fire in October was a false fire, because the assets did not leave the trading market for a long time after the inscription, and everyone traded in OTC, and the actual trading volume was very small. Most of the users who were hit chose to hold the currency and not trade because they were worried about the safety of their funds (OTC middlemen ran away), or with the good expectations of the inscription logic in May 2023.

For the big brother who makes the market, the cost of controlling the market is actually terrible.

There are some smart project owners, for example, a certain L2 took advantage of the popularity of inscriptions and quickly completed the process of inscription asset sales->chain issuance-> listing on CEX-> pledge within one month.

More project owners just stood and watched the inscription wave, but couldn't figure out how to make money from it.

The first wave of inscriptions was small money driving big money;

The second wave of inscriptions was brought about by BN pulling ordi stats;

If there is a third wave of inscriptions, the logic may be:

The first is to return to the gameplay of the first wave, and then engage in small circle narratives and spread outward. The rune copied in March recently is based on this logic; this method will still be slower, but it is impossible to be the same as in the beginning of 23 years. After all, more people are paying attention, and people have been educated clearly. As long as it is a new protocol, they will pay attention to it reflexively and then screen it.

The second is the extreme speed mode of the second wave logic in October 23, which will rush up faster and fall faster. This logic is a bit like the meme market in the zoo. A coin is popular for no more than 72 hours, and the whole market ends in 4-5 weeks. From the perspective of carving a boat to find a sword, the most likely time for this market to appear is the beginning of 2025.

From a cyclical perspective, the first half of 2024 is the best time to issue a coin, and the beginning of 2025 is the worst time to issue a coin, unless you want countless people to greet your relatives.