Opinion: Whoever wins the White House won’t approve a Solana ETF anytime soon

Author: Tim Craig, DL News; Compiler: Wuzhu, Golden Finance

Asset management companies VanEck and 21Shares have just submitted new applications for Solana spot ETFs, but bulls may have to wait a while before buying.

"It is unlikely that the Solana ETF will be launched before 2026,"Sygnum Bank head of investment research Katalin Tischhauser pointed out.

The reason: low demand for the Solana ETF from traditional investors, coupled with a lengthy political and regulatory process.

Since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF on January 10, the value of the cryptocurrency market has increased by about $377 billion.

An upcoming Ethereum spot ETF could keep the party going, analysts say.

Expectations are growing that Solana will be the next U.S. cryptocurrency spot ETF.

Still, the asset’s relative infancy compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum could make ETF approval challenging.

Political Change

The growing politicization of cryptocurrency is a problem.

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas said the SEC’s approval of an Ethereum spot ETF in May may have come as cryptocurrencies have become increasingly politicized ahead of the U.S. election in November.

Former President Donald Trump’s victory could mean a more favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies.

“If Biden wins, [the Solana ETF application] will likely die. If Trump wins, anything is possible,” Balchunas said in a July 8 X post.

Tischhauser said she would be surprised if Solana ETFs became an urgent priority even if Trump wins.

Instead, she said, the filings may indicate that VanEck and 21Shares are more optimistic overall about political change and its subsequent impact.

Unprecedented filings

Even if the political will is there, it doesn’t mean regulators will agree.

The filings for Solana ETFs are unprecedented because they have no corresponding U.S. Solana futures market.

The SEC has previously argued that no spot cryptocurrency ETF can be listed on a U.S. exchange unless there is a highly correlated, regulated futures market for the corresponding asset.

That could change, Tischhauser said.

But there’s a catch.

The SEC is suing Coinbase and Binance. It alleges that many of the crypto assets offered by those exchanges are unregistered securities.

“The trading side of U.S. cryptocurrency exchanges definitely needs to be resolved first,” Tischhauser said.

Not much demand

Weak demand for the Solana ETF from traditional investors could make it less important for the issuer to vie for approval.

In March, Robert Mitchnick, BlackRock’s head of digital assets, said bitcoin was “definitely the No. 1 focus” among the firm’s clients.

He added that there was little demand for Ethereum and even less for other crypto assets.

“Given BlackRock’s market dominance, I take client interest very seriously,” Tischhauser said.

BlackRock has not yet filed for its own Solana spot ETF.