Plans to launch economic policy platform: Recession is the most likely outcome for the US

Headlines

▌Harris: Plans to launch economic policy platform next week

US Vice President Harris said that he plans to launch an economic policy platform next week, which is completely different from Trump's views on the independence of the Federal Reserve. As president, he will never interfere with the decision-making of the Federal Reserve.

▌JP Morgan Chase CEO: Recession is still the most likely outcome for the US economy

JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon reiterated that recession is still the most likely outcome for the US economy, and he insisted that the probability of a "soft landing" is only 35% to 40%. In an interview with CNBC, Jamie Dimon emphasized the continued uncertainty facing the market, pointing out that geopolitics, housing, deficits, spending, quantitative tightening, and elections, all of which can cause panic in the market. Despite his cautious tone, he acknowledged that the economy was performing better than expected.

Market

As of press time, according to Coingecko data:

BTC's latest transaction price is 61,056.3 US dollars, with a daily increase or decrease of +0.5%;

ETH's latest transaction price is 2,624.02 yuan, with a daily increase or decrease of +0.9%;

BNB's latest transaction price is 525.44 US dollars, with a daily increase or decrease of +2.9%；

SOL's latest transaction price is 154.19 US dollars, and its intraday increase or decrease is -1.3%；

DOGE's latest transaction price is 0.1067 US dollars, and its intraday increase or decrease is +2.4%；

XPR's latest transaction price is 0.5884 US dollars, and its intraday increase or decrease is +1.1%.

Policy

▌IRS Releases Reformed Crypto Tax Form, No Longer Requires Disclosure of Address

The U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has released its latest 1099-DA form for reporting digital asset transactions, introducing some key changes that could address past criticism and privacy concerns. The new version, which will reportedly be partially implemented in 2025, removes several controversial elements from an earlier draft.

John Reed Stark, former head of the Internet Enforcement Division of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said that Morgan Stanley's latest move to massively promote Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to its clients may lead to stricter regulatory scrutiny of the US bank. Earlier this week, the Wall Street giant announced plans to allow its 15,000 licensed financial advisors to begin promoting Bitcoin spot ETFs to clients. Including BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC. But only for high-net-worth individuals with a net worth of $1.5 million or more and high risk tolerance.

Blockchain Application

▌Gala Ecosystem Announces Introduction of Telegram Single Sign-On SSO

According to official news, the Gala ecosystem has added a single sign-on (SSO) option using Telegram login credentials. This integration simplifies the registration process and makes it easier for new users to join the Gala ecosystem. It is reported that Telegram users can create and connect Web3 wallets at any time to access all the features provided by Gala.

Runecoin posted on X that it plans to launch Season 2, giving priority to mechanisms and timing.

Maker said in a post that the Block Analitica team proposed to adjust various vault type parameters, which will be considered in the next executive vote. Proposed stability fee (SF) changes: ETH-A: reduced to 6.25%; ETH-B: reduced to 6.75%; ETH-C: reduced to 6%; WSTETH-A: reduced to 7.25%; WSTETH-B: reduced to 7%; WBTC-A: reduced to 7.75%; WBTC-B: reduced to 8.25%; WBTC-C: reduced to 7.5%; Effective DAI borrowing APY reduced to 7%; DSR (Dai Savings Rate) reduced to 6%.

Cryptocurrency

▌QCP Capital: High volatility has cleared market leverage, BTC may hit a record high in Q4

On August 10, QCP Capital posted on its official channel that ETH's liquidity situation relative to BTC has undergone a fundamental change. BTC is increasingly integrated into the mainstream macro capital market, but ETH is increasingly marginalized. BTC's digital gold narrative is very attractive to investors, while ETH lacks such a narrative. However, this does not necessarily have a negative impact only on ETH prices. In addition, options trading has observed that BTC has the same structural bullish trend compared to ETH. In the past two months, funds have mainly flowed into BTC, especially long-term bullish funds, while ETH funds are mainly concentrated in short-term speculation. It believes that BTC's trend this week is a leverage cleanup behavior in order to hit a record high in the fourth quarter.

▌Former Biden adviser: Harris needs to express cryptocurrency views, positions and plans very clearly and publicly

Former Biden adviser Moe Vela said that Harris needs to express cryptocurrency views, positions and plans very clearly and publicly, and needs to build an absolute cryptocurrency platform. The crypto industry needs to understand her views and know how she feels about it. The Democratic Party of the United States must wake up to cryptocurrency and re-examine the advantages of cryptocurrency and how cryptocurrency can really help achieve some goals in the US election. It is reported that Harris plans to face Trump in a televised debate on ABC on September 10, but there are reports that there may be additional debates on September 4 and September 25.

Important Economic Dynamics

▌Federal Reserve Board Governor Bowman: Cautious about rate cuts

Federal Reserve Board Governor Bowman said there are upside risks to inflation and continued strength in the labor market, suggesting she may not be ready to support a rate cut at the next meeting of U.S. central bank officials in September. She said progress in reducing inflation in May and June was welcome, but inflation remains above the committee's 2% target, which is disturbing, and I will remain cautious when considering adjusting the current policy stance. She also said that U.S. fiscal policy, pressure on the housing market from immigration, and geopolitical risks could all put upward pressure on house prices, and that the recent jump in the unemployment rate to 4.3% could exaggerate the extent of the cooling of the labor market.

▌Former U.S. Treasury Secretary: A 50 basis point rate cut in September is appropriate

Golden Finance reported that former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned against allowing the president to interfere in monetary policy making, otherwise it would only hurt the economy over time. "It's a fool's game to get politicians involved, and the end result is higher inflation and a weaker economy," Summers said on Friday. The day before Summers made these remarks, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said he believed the president should have a certain "say" in the Fed's policy making. As for the Fed's policy decisions, Summers said that given that market volatility and stock market declines have eased since Monday, "on the current facts," any emergency rate cut is untenable. Nevertheless, Summers said that "a 50 basis point rate cut may be appropriate" at the September policy meeting.

Golden Encyclopedia

▌What is an inverse futures contract?

An inverse futures contract is a financial arrangement that requires the seller to pay the buyer the difference between the agreed price and the current price when the contract expires. Unlike traditional futures, the seller benefits from a drop in price. The nature of inverse futures contracts is nonlinear. When a trader goes long on a BTC/USD inverse futures contract, they are shorting the U.S. dollar. Because the contract is inverse, the trader's position is worth less in Bitcoin, and the higher the value of Bitcoin, the higher its value relative to the U.S. dollar.

Disclaimer: As a blockchain information platform, Golden Finance publishes articles for information reference only and is not intended as actual investment advice. Please establish the correct investment concept and be sure to enhance risk awareness.