Source: AiYing Compliance
A few gunshots almost announced the end of the suspense of the US presidential election. This is a moment of political violence, and also a moment when a "hero" is born. In the crypto world, the gunshots also became the starting gun for the bulls' counterattack at this moment, and became a catalyst for market trends.
At 18:11 Eastern Time on July 13, former US President Trump was shot at a presidential election rally in Pennsylvania. Trump, whose face was bleeding, was immediately protected by the Secret Service. After shouting to the crowd, he was sent to the hospital for treatment. His physical condition was basically fine.
After being shot, Trump did not leave quickly, but shouted to his supporters at the rally. Under the lens of Pulitzer Prize winner Evan Vucci, Trump clenched his fists high, his face was bleeding, and the American flag was flying behind his head. The tragedy and heroism rendered in the picture immediately became a classic. This shocking scene also became a blockbuster picture that major media around the world rushed to reprint. Some people even found that he was surprisingly consistent with the "Leading the Statue of Liberty" in 1803, which added a heavy touch to Trump's image as a fighting hero.
After the news of Trump's assassination came out, on Polymarket, the bets on Trump's election as president had reached 70%, while Biden had only 16%. At the same time, BTC also jumped sharply, quickly breaking through 60,000 US dollars.
The impact of politics on the crypto world has been more intuitively displayed at this moment. Although the market believes that Trump is likely to be elected, his friendly remarks on cryptocurrencies are very conducive to the development of cryptocurrencies. However, from a deeper level, in the increasingly polarized political struggle and global geopolitical game, Trump's assassination may make the already turbulent global political landscape move in a more extreme direction. If we further look back at Trump's past attitude towards cryptocurrencies, we may be able to see this trend more clearly, and we can also see how Trump has gone from an "anti-crypto president" to a "crypto-friendly president."
1. 2017-2021 presidential term: Criticism! Denial! But moderate regulatory space
When Trump won the first election as US President and during his term, Trump himself took a clear position against cryptocurrencies, and even publicly declared his denial of cryptocurrencies in the media.
However, it was during Trump's term that various regulations were initially developed.
In July 2017, the year he took office, the United States introduced the "Uniform Regulation of Virtual Currency Business Act" which was not legally binding, providing a basic legal framework for the business activities of virtual currency exchanges and a legislative basis for US states; it was also in December of that year that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) launched Bitcoin futures.
In 2018, the SEC under Trump began to strictly regulate ICOs, including a crackdown on Arise Bank, the world's first crypto bank.
In 2019, Trump first criticized Bitcoin and crypto assets on public social media, and the fiscal budget proposal released the following year disclosed millions of dollars in regulatory enforcement funds for the crypto industry.
Before and after leaving office in 2020-2021, although the Trump administration cabinet nominated a number of crypto-friendly advisers, in its public statements, it still insisted that "Bitcoin is a scam and called for stronger regulation of crypto assets", and personally declared that it did not hold cryptocurrencies.
2. During the period of leaving office from 2021 to 2023: Turning point, Trump deeply involved in the NFT craze
The year Trump left office coincided with the rapid growth of NFT issuance. Celebrities from all walks of life started issuing personal NFTs and made a lot of money for a while. In particular, Mrs. Trump quickly followed the trend and announced the launch of the NFT platform to issue Trump-related NFTs. Perhaps it was the personal end of celebrities and their wives. In 2022, Trump officially announced the release of his own limited edition NFT. In 2023, Trump issued two series of NFTs in a row and launched NFT rights, such as Trump dinners and autographed souvenirs, which showed a trend of making his own NFT business bigger and stronger. There is reason to believe that Trump should have made a lot of money through the NFT market during his tenure, which to a certain extent also laid a strong foundation for his change of attitude during his subsequent presidential campaign.
3. 2024-Present: A turn in the political struggle, striving to be a crypto-friendly president
2024 is the year of the US presidential election. The party struggle in the United States is becoming increasingly fierce. Trump and Biden are doing their best and even trying every possible means to win the presidency. Cryptocurrency has attracted the attention of younger voters and is becoming more and more popular in the United States. It has also been used by Trump as one of the important means of campaigning.
In May this year, Trump expressed his acceptance of cryptocurrency donations and specifically pointed out that "Biden doesn't even know what cryptocurrency is" in order to please voters' votes and financial support. In addition, Trump also publicly declared that he would ensure the future of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin in the United States and promised to pardon Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road.
Trump’s partial support for the original speech is as follows:
1. “I will also stop Joe Biden’s crusade to crush crypto – we’re gonna stop it. I will ensure that the future of crypto and the future of bitcoin will be made in the USA, not driven overseas. I will support the right to self custody,”
Translation: I will also stop Joe Biden’s crusade against cryptocurrency – we’re gonna stop it. I will ensure that the future of cryptocurrency and the future of bitcoin will be made in the USA, not driven overseas. I will support the right to self custody.”
2. Bitcoin mining may be our last line of defense against a CBDC. Biden's hatred of Bitcoin only helps China, Russia, and the Radical Communist Left. We want all the remaining Bitcoin to be MADE IN THE USA!!!
Translation: Bitcoin mining may be our last line of defense against CBDC... We want all remaining Bitcoin to be made in the USA!!!
Another example of cryptocurrency becoming an important means of political struggle is the reaction of Trump's opponent Biden.
On May 9 this year, under the decision of the Biden administration, it announced the veto of the repeal of the SAB121 bill, which is essentially to protect consumers of digital assets. After Biden was vetoed, it triggered strong opposition from crypto supporters, forcing Biden to issue a statement that month calling on Congress to establish a "balanced regulatory framework" and begin to contact key figures in the cryptocurrency industry. Under Trump's strong show of goodwill for crypto, Biden had to ease his usual tough stance and turn to please voters. After all, this is about the presidency.
Fourth, the future: the interaction between politics and crypto, the intensifying political violence, and the increasingly compliant crypto assets
Perhaps Trump's various behaviors, as Arthur Hayes criticized that his "sudden concern for cryptocurrencies" was not sincere, but just to please the young, politically active and upstart cryptocurrency groups. However, judging from the assassination of Trump itself, the internal division crisis and social contradictions hidden behind the political struggle have become increasingly prominent problems in the United States, as the political struggle has risen to the stage of armed conflict and assassination. Or, in the near future, people's concerns about war may become a reality, which will further strengthen the attributes of Bitcoin and the crypto assets behind it as the ultimate safe-haven assets in the world.
The more direct impact is that whether Biden or Trump takes office, they will not be able to ignore the influence of crypto assets and the young people of Generation Z behind them, and compliance may be further accelerated. After all, as an old man approaching 80 years old, Trump should understand that the world will eventually belong to these young people, and they will lead the opening of a new era. Whether he likes it or not, the general trend of cryptocurrency has become a reality, and it is better to let it develop in compliance than to be scammed everywhere. Trump's high-waving fist and blood are not only a scene in the history of American politics that is worthy of being recorded in the annals of history, but may also be a classic footnote for the crypto world to move towards the "compliance era".
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Hui Xin
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