The more it falls, the more it is liked.

Original: Liu Jiaolian

People have joys and sorrows, separations and reunions, the moon waxes and wanes, and coins rise and fall. This is a difficult thing in ancient times.

When the 5-day moving average of BTC (Bitcoin) was driven downward by the price and crossed the 30-day moving average, the bulls gave up the illusion of defensive support from the 30-day moving average. The bent 30-day moving average seems to be about to turn from an upward trend to a downward trend. Bulls are hoping that the market will struggle to give an upward blow, but that is not the point.

The key point is how high the expectations of the short sellers are for the decline. This expectation needs to be brewed, fermented, and pushed to a high enough level. Unless this is the case, short sellers will not be confident, otherwise short sellers will not be crazy about short selling, and otherwise short sellers will not double their leverage. There is a cost to the upward thrust, and this cost is only worthwhile when enough short positions can be eliminated.

Open long, pull up, burst short, close long. The key lies in "blasting the air".

The reverse is also true.

How strong the hope for an expected rise is, how loud the market’s backhand slap will be.

The current dilemma is, is it a bear market or a bull market? Is this the beginning of a bull market or the end of a bull market?

There are a thousand different Hamlets in the eyes of a thousand people. There are also a thousand different answers in the mouths of a thousand people.

In this time and space, it is now past the "2021 pre-high" and the starting point of the bull market. In another parallel time and space, we are only halfway through the bear market recovery. Just like more than 10,000 US dollars in 2019, it is only half of the top 20,000 US dollars in 2017.

Ask yourself, do you like going up or down?

If you only like the rise of an asset, such as BTC, but don’t like its fall, then this only means that you don’t understand it. .

This is true for any asset.

In June after the bull market was cut in half in mid-2021, almost everyone in my impression was spreading the "bull market end theory", quoting Howard Marks: "If the price drops further, your love for it should deepen further. If you are not used to this, then you might as well change careers."

Howard also Said: "You have to know the intrinsic value, and you have to be confident enough to hold on and keep buying, even when the price drops to a point that seems to suggest you are doing something wrong."

Of course, he added: "You have to be right."

There are two types of classic mistakes: the first type is not daring to meet Add positions when the price falls. The second category is to use the wrong place to increase positions on dips.

Chase the rise and fall of Bitcoin. "Add positions at the top, cut the profits at the bottom, and recover your capital and take profits." It's a type 1 error.

Add to altcoin positions when prices fall. The lower it falls, the more you buy, hold firmly, and hold on for the long term. This is a type II error.

Lenin said it well: Just take one more small step, as if it were a small step in the same direction, and the truth will turn into a falsehood.

People debate endlessly on the dialectic of success and failure.

Some people say: Failure is the mother of success. The lessons of failure are precious. Successful people each have their own secrets to success, but the pitfalls of failure are all similar. As long as you predict it in advance and avoid it carefully, you can achieve success.

Other people say: Scientific research shows that people who have successfully started a business are more likely to succeed in starting a business again than those who have no successful experience. Therefore, successful experience is the most important.

After all, earning 1000% in one go is far less powerful than earning 10% in a repeatable manner.

Repeat 10% 25 times to exceed 1000%.

If every time you add a position on a dip, it will be a successful addition. Then, the ultimate success is rock solid.