Author: Chairman Rabbit/tuzhuxi 20241106As of the time of writing this article, many media have announced or predicted that Trump will be elected as the 47th President of the United States. The following is a quick review.
1. The victory of the grassroots "revolution". The article "The Eve of the American Revolution" written yesterday analyzed the confrontation between the Trump and Harris camps, which is essentially a confrontation between the American grassroots/people and the American elite ruling group. This is a struggle between "barefoot" and "shoe-wearing", a struggle of "surrounding the city with the countryside", a war between "millet plus rifles" and "aircraft tanks and cannons", a "revolution" without gunpowder. In the end, Trump's side won, and it was a sweeping victory. The Democrats were swept out. 2. The most powerful president in American history. Trump not only won the presidency, but the Republicans also won the Senate and are expected to consolidate their majority in the House of Representatives. At the same time, the Republicans/conservatives have an absolute advantage of 6:3 in the Supreme Court (including three judges hand-picked by Trump). The three powers are united. Moreover, it should be noted that today's Republican Party is not the Republican Party of four years ago, nor the Republican Party of eight years ago, but the party of Trump alone. The more appropriate name is: Trump Party. This concentration of power and influence is probably unprecedented in American history. Trump may be the most powerful president in American history. 3. The United States has completed the Great Realignment, and many stakeholders have re-aligned. The Republican Party has completely turned into a party with the middle and lower classes as its core foundation. Through this election, it has incorporated some blacks, Latinos and young people. It is no longer the party that people imagine "representing big capitalists, big industrialists and businessmen, big financiers, and the bourgeoisie". 4. Half of Americans believe that the United States has entered the Dark Ages. Although the United States has the most powerful president in history, has won the enthusiastic support of half of Americans, and has put forward such an exciting slogan as "Make America Great Again" (MAGA), the US politics is unprecedentedly divided and the society is unprecedentedly torn apart. Half of the population believes that a political gangster with extremely bad character, analogous to Hitler, fascism, and Nazis, has come to power and will do his best to destroy everything people know about the American system in the next four years and take the country in another direction. They are unprecedentedly confused and desperate about the future of the country and feel the darkest moment. Therefore, Americans have a consensus on at least one thing: the label Musk rendered: "Dark MAGA" - MAGA, in the final analysis, is dark. In the eyes of MAGA fans, this is a triumph and a banner of revolution; in the eyes of the left, it is evil, terror, and darkness. 5. The new connotation of MAGA politics: The Trump administration will explore new ideologies and value systems in the United States. The new MAGAism will include multiple dimensions:
1) In terms of government, the first is to greatly strengthen the power of the president/executive branch, radiating to the legislative and judicial branches through the president, the leader of the political center. Second, a major cleansing and replacement of the federal bureaucracy will be carried out, bringing more non-Washington talents into the government; third, the authoritarian color will be increased, the decision-making will be more centralized, the government's execution efficiency will be improved, and unnecessary red tape and bureaucratic procedures in the old system will be removed.2) Domestic economic and social policies: In terms of the underlying framework, return to "marketism": small government, low taxes, less regulation and intervention, limited welfare, support for capital, "trickle-down economy", and use market forces to attract capital backflow; in terms of economic structure, adopt trade protectionism externally and form industrial policies and mechanisms internally to encourage the development of specific industries, aiming to revitalize traditional industries and manufacturing industries locally; attitude towards large enterprises and capital: require American companies to "talk politics" and return to the United States for more investment and construction3) Domestic culture: vigorously promote and develop American nativism, patriotism, and nationalism (the United States is a "nation", in the words of JD Vance), establish the dominant cultural status centered on white people, and oppose liberalism/progressivism/wokeness. The new government will influence and shape American society through the Supreme Court, legislation, executive orders, speeches by political leaders and opinion leaders.4) Foreign Economy: Anti-globalization, anti-free trade, anti-neoliberal framework, comprehensively upgrade the use of tariff tools to exclude foreign goods, as pressure and motivation for the development of domestic industries in the United States5) International Politics: "Isolationism" and "non-interventionism", reduce investment in international geopolitics, reduce the payment for the international order dominated by the United States, and re-evaluate the political and economic relations between the United States and its allies6) In pursuing the above goals, the Trump administration will be empowered by Musk, the "New Silicon Valley".We will see the formation of a new technology-authoritarianism-conservative political alliance 6. Can the United States revive its domestic manufacturing industry?Can the problem be solved by simply raising tariffs abroad and reducing taxes at home? Of course it is not enough. The development of manufacturing/industry requires infrastructure construction, logistics and supply chain optimization; strong support policies and business environment at the federal and local levels (a large number of environmental protection regulations, labor protection regulations, etc. have greatly increased costs); different labor-capital relations models are required (the labor-capital/union vs. employer relations in the United States are antagonistic, completely different from East Asian societies), and matching worker culture/values (work attitude). These are all important conditions. The 2019 film "American Factory" reflects these issues well. Moreover, even if the manufacturing industry is revitalized, it may not be converted into employment opportunities: because of the factors of artificial intelligence and automation. If the cost of workers is high, the newly added manufacturing industry will be more inclined to use artificial intelligence and automated equipment, that is, the industry is capital-intensive, technology-intensive, rather than labor-intensive. Therefore, revitalizing the manufacturing industry in the United States does not simply mean creating a large number of manufacturing jobs. The human labor force will still be engaged in low-quality, low-skilled, and low-income service industries. This is a bigger trend
7. Maybe twelve years. Back to American politics. This is Trump's last term as president. During this period, he will think more about his political legacy. He will fully assist Vice President JD Vance and make him the successor to the MAGA cause. If all goes well, JD Vance may succeed the president-elect in four years; if he does well, he may have another four years. Don't underestimate JD Vance's ability: this person has great potential and fully possesses such political potential. In this way, the president will serve for twelve years, which will have a profound impact on the political, social and cultural ecology and national destiny of the United States.
8. New politics in the United States.We have done some analysis before, saying that the values of young Americans on economic issues are "left-leaning", believing in progressivism, sympathizing with socialism, and not resisting socialism. In other words, in terms of economic values, they will be more similar to us in the future. Will Trump's coming to power change young people's views on economic issues? It's hard to say. But after all, Trump is a grassroots party, a populist party, and pays attention to the employment and survival of ordinary people. Therefore, the Trump Party can include left-wing economic policies. On the other hand, Trump (and Musk)'s technology-authoritarianism-conservative political alliance will bring more authoritarianism, paternalism, and strongman leaders to American political culture. This will be more similar to East Asian traditions. In other words, there is a possibility that the future United States will be more similar to us.
9. The collective rightward shift in the United States. In general, the path of collective rightward shift in American society will have an impact on the entire Western society, guiding and encouraging people with similar political values and ideologies to enter the political arena in various Western countries, master public discourse, and influence and shape society. Many people in the West are worried that the cause of "liberal democracy" will encounter major setbacks and challenges. Yes, that's right. The "beacon" of the free world, the United States, will lead countries into "illiberal democracy" (the path of illiberal democracy). There is no end to history, only the end of "Fukuyamas"
10. Focus on international politics. What will Trump do after taking office?
1) The first "victim" is Zelensky. Trump will put pressure on Ukraine. Ukraine will be forced to give up part of its territory and cease fire with Russia. Trump will try to repair relations with Russia and intends to "ally with Russia to contain China". This has been mentioned repeatedly by several of his aides, and it is basically an open card. 2) In Europe, since Trump will impose tariffs on the EU, abandon Europe on Russia and Ukraine, and reduce investment and commitment to NATO, the relationship between the United States and Europe will be difficult. In particular, mainstream political parties in Europe hate Trump very much. The British Labour Party will have a hard time with Trump. The bad relationship between the United States and Europe will certainly give China space and opportunities. 3) The situation in Japan and South Korea is the same. Trump will re-evaluate the security and economic and trade relations with Japan and South Korea. His wishful thinking is to attract Japanese and Korean companies to invest in the United States and help develop domestic industries in the United States. 4) Taiwan: Trump believes that Taiwan has "stolen" the chip industry of the United States and used the chip industry to coerce and force the United States. Trump's calculation is to "carrot and stick" to attract Taiwanese companies to invest in the United States. For Taiwan, this is very embarrassing. Without the chip industry, it will not only affect the economy, but also greatly reduce its strategic value to the United States. Japan and South Korea are eyeing Taiwan's chip industry. And those American companies that have made great efforts to deploy in Taiwan (such as Nvidia) will also feel political pressure in the future. Finally, under the framework of "isolationism", Trump has no interest in Taiwan and the South China Sea, and has no intention of conflicting with China. If there is any difference between this term and the first term, Trump will be less influenced by the "deep state" and can decide foreign policy more independently. 5) For China: Trump will initiate a comprehensive decoupling and chain breaking. The first category is to restrict China's entry into the United States, with a tariff of 60% on the spot, and more tariffs may be imposed on key products. If there is any difference between the current Trump and the past, it is that Trump in 2018 hopes to use trade to open China's door and force China to abide by the rules. But at that time, the White House trade representative did not have the idea of reviving the domestic industry in the United States. Trump after 2025 is dominated by industrial thinking. Tariffs are just a means to keep China out of the United States. Some people ask, can Chinese companies invest in the United States (FDI), build factories locally, create some jobs and taxes for the United States, and Trump will allow Chinese brands "made in the United States" to enter the US market? My judgment is: No. Trump's election agenda is to prohibit Chinese investment in the United States and regard China as a geopolitical and security enemy. The author has written about this issue many times, introducing the "asymmetry" of Sino-US policies. The second type of policy is to further attack China, such as restricting the export of key technology products to China; imposing sanctions on Chinese industries and companies; restricting the flow of US capital into Chinese industries and companies. Trade war, economic war, financial war, and technology war are all on the rise. This is the posture Trump has taken. 6) Middle East/Israel issue:We still need to wait and see. Trump believes that he can influence Netanyahu and Israel. But Netanyahu is now a "salesman" responsible for promoting Israel's extreme right-wing policies. Israel now has its own logic and is coercing the United States in reverse. It all depends on how much Trump is willing to play along with Israel. Will he pin Israel to the ground, or will he allow Israel to escalate the conflict, or even spread the war to Iran? It should be noted that MAGA is isolationist, and the MAGA base has zero appetite and interest in the United States intervening in the Middle East war. Trump must clearly tell Israel about the isolationism of the United States. 11. The Democratic Party is divorced from the masses and is rotten. Looking back at the Democratic Party, with the support of big companies and capital, the entire government system, the mainstream media, the entire entertainment and cultural industry, the entire intellectual community, and most of the urban elites, the "planes, tanks, and cannons" have lost so badly to the "millet plus rifles", which shows how unpopular this government has been in the past four years. In fact, the Democratic Party lacks reflection. All the comments are still focused on Trump, saying how the American people don't know how important this election is, and that American democracy is about to end. Watching Harris's interviews and speeches, there is not a single word of reflection or facing the problem directly. It seems that she really does not think that her government has done anything inadequate. There is a saying in China that "the greatest danger of the ruling party is to be out of touch with the masses". The Democratic Party is a party that is completely out of touch with the masses, corrupt, arrogant, and self-righteous. It is inevitable to experience such a tragic failure. Only after experiencing such a tragic failure can we learn from the pain and find the direction to start again. 12. About Biden. The Democrats have been thinking in their hearts: What kind of historical status should Biden be given? Is he a meritorious official who retired at the height of his career? Or a sinner who clings to power? A hero or a bear? This judgment depends entirely on whether Harris can be elected. If Harris fails to be elected and fails to take over the baton, then Biden will be a bear, a historical sinner on the Democratic side: he should retire earlier. Even from the very beginning, Harris should not have been chosen as the vice president. 13. Evaluation of Harris. Harris went into battle at a critical moment, but she did not have the ability and skill to do so. She did not have such skill. She did not have enough ability. She was not prepared and could not convince people. As the saying goes, "There is no great general in Shu, so Liao Hua is the vanguard." Facts have proved that she is "mud that cannot be plastered on the wall." Politics is cruel. Harris, who failed in the election, will be swept into the "garbage dump of history" and basically disappear from the political arena - there will be no day for her to make a comeback. And her vice presidential candidate Tim Walz will be forgotten in an instant. 14. Many people have seriously misjudged this election. The unfortunate death of the last "weathervane county" Clallam County was just an episode. There is a professor named Allan Lichtman who claims that he has predicted the outcome of nine out of ten elections, “without looking at the candidates.” In the end, he chose Harris and gave a lot of reasons. If you look closely, his answers to the evaluation criteria he proposed are extremely subjective and completely out of touch with the reality of the United States. This kind of prediction is a joke. In addition, in the past two weeks, there have been a lot of information in the simplified Chinese circle predicting Harris’ victory (even a big win), some claiming to be experts, some self-media, and some netizens, who have created an atmosphere (vibes) on the Chinese website that Harris is going to win a big win. These people’s judgments are lacking in basis, and they have not followed the American politics and election situation all the way down.
This is only part of the article. If you follow it all the way, you will be able to grasp a lot of information about the US election and American politics, and you will not make fundamental misjudgments. The quality of many analyses exceeds that of English media: why Biden withdrew from the election; why Harris was replaced; why Harris is not okay; why JD Vance is a good choice; what does the participation of forces such as Musk and Joe Rogan mean; how to view this election, etc.
Alex
Miyuki
Weatherly
Kikyo
Anais
Catherine
Joy