Text: Bian Chun
Matt Hogan, chief investment officer (CIO) of Bitwise, the largest cryptocurrency fund management company in the United States, recently predicted that if the United States establishes a national reserve of Bitcoin, the price of Bitcoin may soar to $500,000.
This means that Bitcoin is expected to rise nearly 400% from its current price. According to data from the cryptocurrency news website Coindesk, the price of Bitcoin is currently $100,475.
After Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said on Wednesday that the Fed does not intend to hold digital currencies and hinted that it will take a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts next year, the price of Bitcoin plummeted, falling nearly 5% in the past 24 hours. Earlier this week, the cryptocurrency hit an all-time high of more than $108,000.
Hogan said that the U.S. purchase of Bitcoin will drive more countries to buy cryptocurrencies.
"If we do build a strategic reserve of Bitcoin, and the government buys Bitcoin... $200,000 in Bitcoin looks a little conservative. You're going to see $300,000, $400,000, $500,000 in Bitcoin. This is a big deal because governments around the world are going to do it (buy Bitcoin)," Hogan said.
Hogan said he was skeptical when Trump first raised the idea of building a national Bitcoin reserve during the campaign. But he noted that the idea "has not gone away," and Wyoming Senator Cynthia Loomis recently introduced a new crypto bill, and more people within the Trump administration said they were open to the idea of building a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Trump also hinted again at building a Bitcoin reserve in an interview at the New York Stock Exchange last week.
“I still think, you know, maybe this (establishing a national bitcoin reserve) is less than 50%, but it’s not zero,” he added. "Again, if that happens, or we start to see it happen in other countries, you're going to see a surge in bitcoin that will make 2024 look pretty tame by comparison."
Since the U.S. presidential election, bitcoin has risen 55% and is up more than 140% so far this year.
Leaving aside the issue of strategic reserves, Hogan said bitcoin has the potential to climb to $200,000 in the coming year as investor demand continues to rise.
He believes there are three "irrepressible" sources of demand for bitcoin, namely ETFs, Microstrategy (the public company with the most bitcoin holdings in the world), and governments that could become buyers of bitcoin.
"Ultimately, it comes down to supply and demand. There is too much demand and not enough supply, so I think the price will be higher in 2025," he added.
With Trump's second term approaching, Wall Street's optimism about cryptocurrencies is growing.
Standard Chartered Bank, which accurately predicted that Bitcoin would climb to $100,000 this year, also predicted that the price of Bitcoin would reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, and some bolder bulls predicted that Bitcoin would rise to $500,000. Cryptocurrency lobbyist and CEO of the Chamber of Digital Commerce Perianne Boring even boldly shouted the slogan that Bitcoin will break through $800,000 next year.
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