Trump assassination leads Polymarket to set new trading record amid political betting frenzy

Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction platform, is experiencing a surge in activity, reaching a new monthly all-time high midway through July.

Nate Silver Joins Polymarket

Silver, the founder of 538, has joined Polymarket following his departure from ABC News-owned poll and data analysis website due to layoffs at Walt Disney. Silver expressed that prediction markets are becoming crucial for understanding and planning for the future, highlighting Polymarket's efficient trading.

Polymarket hits record trading volume

In June, Polymarket achieved a record trading volume of $111 million. July's trading volume has already surpassed this, standing at $113 million with two weeks remaining.

Recently, $94 million in wagers were settled on Polymarket as traders predicted former President Donald Trump’s running mate, with Sen. J.D. Vance emerged as the pick.

Daily active wallets on the platform increased to 4,200 during this period.

US election explains surge in Polymarket trading volume

Polymarket features a wide range of markets beyond politics. Bets include predictions on weather records, election outcomes in specific states, and box office earnings for upcoming films.

Polymarket's rise in activity is partly due to the uncertain political climate in the U.S. Traders have wagered $262 million on predicting the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

Polymarket has seen a total of $400 million in bets this year, positioning itself as a significant prediction market.

Polymarket has a huge community

Polymarket’s activity spike began in May after announcing an $80 million Series B funding round, attracting new traders. Last month, the platform had 29,400 active users, with 22,000 users halfway through this month.

Polymarket's Discord server has grown to 11,300 members, with 1,600 active users at any given time. This community engagement reflects the platform's vibrant user base.

About the issue of market manipulation in Polymarket

Polymarket's crypto origins influence trader behaviour. For example, bettors recently predicted a 61% chance of former President Trump mentioning "Bitcoin" during a debate, which did not occur.

Concerns about potential market manipulation, such as wash trading, have emerged on Polymarket.

Wash trading involves simultaneous buying and selling to create misleading market data.

While Polymarket is unavailable to U.S. traders, its projections are increasingly cited by mainstream news outlets on political matters, including Newsweek and the Wall Street Journal.